Le Havre AC — Stade Brest 29: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.0% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 66.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.7% / 23.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Le Havre AC and Stade Brest 29 meet in a Ligue 1 contest that appears finely balanced. The available assessment describes the teams as evenly matched, with moderate confidence, so the game may be shaped by small details rather than a clear difference in overall strength. The market signal points toward Stade Brest 29 having some protection against defeat, although the broader outlook remains cautious.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with likely outcomes ranging from a 1:1 draw to narrow wins for either side. Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, which leaves the attacking pattern difficult to define in advance. Le Havre AC will look to make home advantage count, while Stade Brest 29 may be able to keep the contest competitive and possibly gain the stronger result. Overall, a close match with limited separation between the sides is the most consistent reading.
What matters before kick-off
Team news and injuries
Le Havre are without Abdoulaye Toure, Felix Khonde Mambimbi, Paul Argney, and Stephan Zagadou due to injuries. Stade Brest 29 have Brendan Chardonnet, Romain Cagnon, Mamady Diambou, and Justin Bourgault sidelined.
Recent league performance
Le Havre started their Ligue 1 campaign with a 1-0 defeat to Monaco followed by a 1-1 draw against Lyon. Stade Brest 29 opened their season with back-to-back 2-2 draws against Le Mans and Toulouse.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.