Olympique Marseille — Paris FC: Win probabilities, 06.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.6% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.4% / 40.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.2% / 18.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.6% / 64.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.7% / 81.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.5% / 91.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 06.09.2026
Olympique Marseille
9th place · 3 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Monaco 0:2
- 21.08.2026 home Strasbourg 4:0
- 17.05.2026 home Rennes 3:1
- 10.05.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
- 02.05.2026 away Nantes 0:3
Paris FC
5th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Nice 3:0
- 22.08.2026 away Troyes 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Paris SG 2:1
- 10.05.2026 away Rennes 1:2
- 03.05.2026 home Brest 4:0
This season: Olympique Marseille at home vs Paris FC away
| Metric | Olympique Marseille · at home | Paris FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.86 | 1.80 |
| xG against per match | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| Shots on target per match | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 31.01.2026 Paris FC 2:2 Olympique Marseille
- 23.08.2025 Olympique Marseille 5:2 Paris FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Olympique Marseille meet Paris FC in Ligue 1 with the hosts holding a slight edge in the overall assessment. The matchup does not point to a one-sided contest, but Olympique Marseille appear better placed to control the game, particularly if they can establish authority in possession and turn that control into sustained pressure. Paris FC should remain competitive, and the balance of the fixture leaves room for the visitors to make the contest uncomfortable.
A medium-scoring game is the most reasonable expectation, although there is no clear indication that both teams will find the net. That makes the draw a credible possibility alongside a narrow home victory. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0, reflecting a match that could be decided by a small margin rather than a wide gap in quality. Overall, the 1X angle fits the assessment: Olympique Marseille have the stronger position, while Paris FC retain a realistic chance of taking something from the match.
What matters before kick-off
Kondogbia and Nnadi Ruled Out for Marseille
Olympique Marseille midfielders Geoffrey Kondogbia and Tochukwu Nnadi were left out of the squad to face Paris FC due to thigh and knee injuries respectively, sustained against AS Monaco.
Unbeaten Start and Clean Sheets for Paris FC
Paris FC entered matchday three of Ligue 1 unbeaten and without conceding a goal, following a 0-0 draw with Troyes and a 3-0 victory against OGC Nice.
Marseille's Recent Home Result Against Paris FC
In their previous Ligue 1 home meeting at the Stade Vélodrome, Olympique Marseille secured a commanding 5-2 victory against Paris FC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.