Paris Saint-Germain — AS Monaco: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.8% |
| 12 | 84.3% | |
| X2 | 26.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.5% / 25.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.0% / 65.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.8% / 80.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.09.2026
Paris Saint-Germain
12th place · 2 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.08.2026 away Lille 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Rennes 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Paris FC 1:2
- 13.05.2026 away Lens 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Brest 1:0
AS Monaco
2nd place · 6 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home Marseille 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Strasbourg 4:5
- 10.05.2026 home Lille 0:1
- 02.05.2026 away Metz 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 06.03.2026 Paris Saint-Germain 1:3 AS Monaco
- 29.11.2025 AS Monaco 1:0 Paris Saint-Germain
- 07.02.2025 Paris Saint-Germain 4:1 AS Monaco
- 18.12.2024 AS Monaco 2:4 Paris Saint-Germain
- 01.03.2024 AS Monaco 0:0 Paris Saint-Germain
- 24.11.2023 Paris Saint-Germain 5:2 AS Monaco
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Paris Saint-Germain enter this Ligue 1 fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving the hosts a high level of confidence. AS Monaco face a demanding task against a team expected to control the overall balance of the match, particularly in an attacking contest where Paris Saint-Germain are projected to have the greater influence.
The outlook points towards a high-scoring game rather than a cautious encounter. AS Monaco are also considered likely to score, which suggests that their attacking threat should not be dismissed even though the home side holds the stronger position. That combination leaves room for an open match, with both teams potentially contributing to the attacking rhythm.
Paris Saint-Germain therefore have the clearer advantage, while AS Monaco’s best route may be to make the game transitional and exploit opportunities when the hosts commit players forward. The central expectation is a home win, but the visitors remain capable of making the contest competitive.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability news
Defender Nuno Mendes is suspended for Paris Saint-Germain, while AS Monaco list Ansu Fati as sidelined through injury.
Ligue 1 season start
Paris Saint-Germain opened their league campaign with consecutive 2-2 draws, whereas AS Monaco recorded two victories from their first two matches.
Head-to-head milestone
AS Monaco has been Paris Saint-Germain's most frequent opponent over the past 13 years, with 35 competitive meetings played between the sides since 2013.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.