Olympique Lyon — AJ Auxerre: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.5% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 30.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.4% / 44.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.09.2026
Olympique Lyon
4th place · 4 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Le Havre 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Toulouse 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Lens 0:4
- 10.05.2026 away Toulouse 1:2
- 03.05.2026 home Rennes 4:2
AJ Auxerre
18th place · 0 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.08.2026 home Angers 1:3
- 22.08.2026 away Lens 2:5
- 17.05.2026 away Lille 2:0
- 10.05.2026 home Nice 2:1
- 03.05.2026 home Angers 3:1
This season: Olympique Lyon at home vs AJ Auxerre away
| Metric | Olympique Lyon · at home | AJ Auxerre · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.68 | 1.85 |
| xG against per match | 0.67 | 4.42 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.04.2026 Olympique Lyon 3:2 AJ Auxerre
- 23.11.2025 AJ Auxerre 0:0 Olympique Lyon
- 13.04.2025 AJ Auxerre 1:3 Olympique Lyon
- 27.10.2024 Olympique Lyon 2:2 AJ Auxerre
- 17.02.2023 AJ Auxerre 2:1 Olympique Lyon
- 31.08.2022 Olympique Lyon 2:1 AJ Auxerre
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Olympique Lyon enter this Ligue 1 meeting with a clear edge over AJ Auxerre, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be overstated. The home side is the stronger team on the available assessment, while the away side still has a credible chance of making the contest competitive. The main signal points towards a home win, but the match should be approached with some caution rather than as a foregone conclusion.
The scoring outlook is high, indicating a game that could open up as it develops. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, so the assessment does not strongly favour either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The leading scorelines are 2:0 and 2:1, with 1:1 also among the plausible outcomes. Overall, Olympique Lyon have the stronger profile, while AJ Auxerre may still influence the game if they can stay organised and take advantage of their opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Lyon squad availability against Auxerre
Julien Duranville is ruled out for Olympique Lyonnais against AJ Auxerre due to muscle fatigue, while new signing Keito Nakamura is ineligible as his transfer registration was not completed in time.
Auxerre team news and absences
AJ Auxerre defender Axel Tuanzebe is unavailable as he works towards full fitness, while Fredrik Oppegård misses the fixture due to illness.
Early season form for Lyon and Auxerre
Olympique Lyonnais collected four points from their opening two Ligue 1 fixtures following a win over Toulouse and a draw with Le Havre, while AJ Auxerre suffered back-to-back defeats against Lens and Angers.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.