Olympique Lyon — AJ Auxerre: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 88.5% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 30.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.4% / 44.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.7% / 35.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Olympique Lyon enter this Ligue 1 meeting with a clear edge over AJ Auxerre, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the difference should not be overstated. The home side is the stronger team on the available assessment, while the away side still has a credible chance of making the contest competitive. The main signal points towards a home win, but the match should be approached with some caution rather than as a foregone conclusion.
The scoring outlook is high, indicating a game that could open up as it develops. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, so the assessment does not strongly favour either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The leading scorelines are 2:0 and 2:1, with 1:1 also among the plausible outcomes. Overall, Olympique Lyon have the stronger profile, while AJ Auxerre may still influence the game if they can stay organised and take advantage of their opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Lyon squad availability against Auxerre
Julien Duranville is ruled out for Olympique Lyonnais against AJ Auxerre due to muscle fatigue, while new signing Keito Nakamura is ineligible as his transfer registration was not completed in time.
Auxerre team news and absences
AJ Auxerre defender Axel Tuanzebe is unavailable as he works towards full fitness, while Fredrik Oppegård misses the fixture due to illness.
Early season form for Lyon and Auxerre
Olympique Lyonnais collected four points from their opening two Ligue 1 fixtures following a win over Toulouse and a draw with Le Havre, while AJ Auxerre suffered back-to-back defeats against Lens and Angers.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.