OGC Nice — Le Mans FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 44.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
OGC Nice have a slight edge over Le Mans FC in this Ligue 1 meeting, although the low confidence level points to a fairly open assessment rather than a decisive mismatch. The available outlook suggests a medium-scoring contest, with neither side clearly separated from the other across the main indicators.
Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, so the match could develop in contrasting ways. OGC Nice may have enough attacking quality to create the stronger opportunities, but Le Mans FC remain capable of contributing to the scoreline if they find space in transition or respond well to pressure. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, which reflect a narrow range between a balanced draw and a modest home victory. Overall, the hosts hold the better position, but the margin is limited and the match may remain competitive deep into the game.
What matters before kick-off
Search for the First Win
In Matchday 3 of Ligue 1, OGC Nice host Le Mans FC at the Allianz Riviera. Both teams sit on one point after two opening matches and are looking for their first league victory of the season.
OGC Nice Early Season Form
OGC Nice have yet to score a goal in Ligue 1 this season, having played out a 0-0 draw against Lorient before suffering a 3-0 defeat to Paris FC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.