OGC Nice — Le Mans FC: Win probabilities, 05.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 44.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 05.09.2026
OGC Nice
17th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Paris FC 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Lorient 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Metz 0:0
- 10.05.2026 away Auxerre 1:2
- 02.05.2026 home Lens 1:1
Le Mans FC
13th place · 1 pts after 2Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Rennes 2:3
- 22.08.2026 home Brest 2:2
- 09.05.2026 away Bastia 2:0
- 02.05.2026 home Reims 1:1
- 25.04.2026 away Grenoble 1:1
This season: OGC Nice at home vs Le Mans FC away
| Metric | OGC Nice · at home | Le Mans FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.05 | 2.98 |
| xG against per match | 1.27 | 2.68 |
| Shots on target per match | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
OGC Nice have a slight edge over Le Mans FC in this Ligue 1 meeting, although the low confidence level points to a fairly open assessment rather than a decisive mismatch. The available outlook suggests a medium-scoring contest, with neither side clearly separated from the other across the main indicators.
Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, so the match could develop in contrasting ways. OGC Nice may have enough attacking quality to create the stronger opportunities, but Le Mans FC remain capable of contributing to the scoreline if they find space in transition or respond well to pressure. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, which reflect a narrow range between a balanced draw and a modest home victory. Overall, the hosts hold the better position, but the margin is limited and the match may remain competitive deep into the game.
What matters before kick-off
Search for the First Win
In Matchday 3 of Ligue 1, OGC Nice host Le Mans FC at the Allianz Riviera. Both teams sit on one point after two opening matches and are looking for their first league victory of the season.
OGC Nice Early Season Form
OGC Nice have yet to score a goal in Ligue 1 this season, having played out a 0-0 draw against Lorient before suffering a 3-0 defeat to Paris FC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.