Toulouse FC — Le Havre AC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.8% |
| 12 | 77.0% | |
| X2 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.5% / 41.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.0% / 17.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.5% / 39.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.2% / 61.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.7% / 79.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Toulouse FC
17th place · 2 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Lorient 2:2
- 03.09.2026 home Lille 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Brest 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Lyon 0:2
- 17.05.2026 away Nantes 0:0
Le Havre AC
16th place · 2 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Angers 0:0
- 05.09.2026 home Brest 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Lyon 1:1
- 23.08.2026 home Monaco 0:1
- 17.05.2026 away Lorient 2:0
This season: Toulouse FC at home vs Le Havre AC away
| Metric | Toulouse FC · at home | Le Havre AC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 3.09 | 0.67 |
| xG against per match | 0.89 | 1.68 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.02.2026 Le Havre AC 2:1 Toulouse FC
- 02.11.2025 Toulouse FC 0:0 Le Havre AC
- 23.02.2025 Le Havre AC 1:4 Toulouse FC
- 15.09.2024 Toulouse FC 2:0 Le Havre AC
- 10.03.2024 Le Havre AC 1:0 Toulouse FC
- 05.11.2023 Toulouse FC 1:2 Le Havre AC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Toulouse FC meet Le Havre AC in Ligue 1 on 19 September 2026, with the hosts holding a slight edge according to the available assessment. The low confidence level is important, however, so the matchup appears relatively balanced rather than one-sided. Toulouse FC may have the stronger position entering the game, but Le Havre AC remain well placed to make the contest competitive.
The scoring outlook points toward a medium-scoring match, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests a game shaped by chances at both ends rather than a purely cautious approach. The main expectation is for a close result, with a draw or a narrow Toulouse FC victory fitting the overall picture. Le Havre AC should have opportunities to respond, while Toulouse FC will look to make their home advantage count.
What matters before kick-off
Aron Dønnum returns to squad
Toulouse winger Aron Dønnum returned to the matchday squad for the fixture against Le Havre after missing the opening four rounds of Ligue 1 due to personal reasons.
Recent league draws
In their previous matchday, Toulouse earned a 2-2 draw away at Lorient, while Le Havre drew 0-0 at home against Angers.
Toulouse's home record against Le Havre
Toulouse are unbeaten in their last two Ligue 1 home encounters against Le Havre, keeping a clean sheet in both fixtures.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.