Olympique Lyon — Stade Rennais FC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.7% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.5% / 33.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.9% / 14.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.8% / 57.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.2% / 87.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Olympique Lyon
4th place · 8 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Paris FC 0:0
- 04.09.2026 home Auxerre 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home Le Havre 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Toulouse 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Lens 0:4
Stade Rennais FC
3rd place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 11.09.2026 home Marseille 1:0
- 06.09.2026 away Angers 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Le Mans 3:2
- 23.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
- 17.05.2026 away Marseille 1:3
This season: Olympique Lyon at home vs Stade Rennais FC away
| Metric | Olympique Lyon · at home | Stade Rennais FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.27 | 1.54 |
| xG against per match | 0.69 | 1.65 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 Olympique Lyon 4:2 Stade Rennais FC
- 14.09.2025 Stade Rennais FC 3:1 Olympique Lyon
- 26.04.2025 Olympique Lyon 4:1 Stade Rennais FC
- 18.08.2024 Stade Rennais FC 3:0 Olympique Lyon
- 26.01.2024 Olympique Lyon 2:3 Stade Rennais FC
- 12.11.2023 Stade Rennais FC 0:1 Olympique Lyon
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Olympique Lyon have a slight edge over Stade Rennais FC, although the moderate confidence suggests a closely balanced contest rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment points toward a competitive Ligue 1 meeting in which the home side may have the stronger overall position, but Stade Rennais FC remain well placed to challenge for a result.
The main expectation is an open game with chances at both ends. The scoring outlook is high, and both teams are considered likely to find the net, which could make the match difficult to control for either defence. Olympique Lyon’s home advantage gives them the narrow advantage in the overall reading, while the possibility of a draw or an away win remains credible. A result favouring Olympique Lyon appears slightly more likely, but the balance of the indicators points to a match decided by fine margins rather than sustained dominance.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek Europa League fixtures
Both clubs featured in UEFA Europa League action in midweek ahead of this match: Lyon claimed a 2-1 away victory against Anderlecht, while Rennes drew 0-0 away at Sturm Graz.
Unbeaten starts in Ligue 1
Both sides enter matchday 5 unbeaten in the Ligue 1 season: Rennes collected 10 points from their opening four matches, while Lyon accumulated 8 points.
No draws in recent head-to-head encounters
None of the last 11 competitive meetings between Lyon and Stade Rennais have ended in a draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.