Paris FC — Strasbourg Alsace: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.4% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.1% / 14.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.8% / 36.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.7% / 58.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.5% / 76.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Paris FC
5th place · 8 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Lyon 0:0
- 06.09.2026 away Marseille 3:2
- 30.08.2026 home Nice 3:0
- 22.08.2026 away Troyes 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Paris SG 2:1
Strasbourg Alsace
6th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Monaco 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Troyes 6:2
- 29.08.2026 home Lens 2:1
- 21.08.2026 away Marseille 0:4
- 17.05.2026 home Monaco 5:4
This season: Paris FC at home vs Strasbourg Alsace away
| Metric | Paris FC · at home | Strasbourg Alsace · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.59 | 1.57 |
| xG against per match | 0.58 | 2.40 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Strasbourg Alsace 0:0 Paris FC
- 21.09.2025 Paris FC 2:3 Strasbourg Alsace
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Paris FC have a slight edge over Strasbourg Alsace in this Ligue 1 meeting, with the assessment carrying a high level of confidence. The home side appear better placed in the overall outlook, although the margin is not large enough to make this a one-sided contest. Strasbourg Alsace remain credible opponents and should have opportunities to influence the match.
The attacking profile points towards an open, high-scoring game in which both teams are likely to score. That makes a cautious interpretation of the home advantage appropriate rather than expecting Paris FC to control every phase. The most plausible scorelines include a draw, a narrow Paris FC victory, or a more comfortable home win, with the central expectation favouring protection against an away victory. Overall, Paris FC hold the clearer position, but Strasbourg Alsace have enough attacking potential to keep the match competitive until the final stages.
What matters before kick-off
Paris FC's undefeated start
Paris FC enter matchday 5 of the 2026/27 Ligue 1 season unbeaten in their opening four fixtures (2 wins, 2 draws), following a 0-0 home draw against Lyon in their previous outing.
Strasbourg's strong scoring start
Strasbourg scored nine goals in their opening four matches of the 2026/27 Ligue 1 season, recording the highest goal tally in the league over those first four rounds.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.