AS Monaco — Racing Club De Lens: Win probabilities, 18.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.9% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.5% / 14.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.09.2026
AS Monaco
2nd place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Strasbourg 1:1
- 04.09.2026 away Paris SG 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Marseille 2:0
- 23.08.2026 away Le Havre 1:0
- 17.05.2026 away Strasbourg 4:5
Racing Club De Lens
10th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Le Mans 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Lorient 0:1
- 29.08.2026 away Strasbourg 1:2
- 22.08.2026 home Auxerre 5:2
- 17.05.2026 away Lyon 4:0
This season: AS Monaco at home vs Racing Club De Lens away
| Metric | AS Monaco · at home | Racing Club De Lens · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.49 | 2.25 |
| xG against per match | 1.22 | 2.12 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.02.2026 Racing Club De Lens 2:3 AS Monaco
- 08.11.2025 AS Monaco 1:4 Racing Club De Lens
- 17.05.2025 Racing Club De Lens 4:0 AS Monaco
- 01.09.2024 AS Monaco 1:1 Racing Club De Lens
- 25.02.2024 Racing Club De Lens 2:3 AS Monaco
- 02.09.2023 AS Monaco 3:0 Racing Club De Lens
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AS Monaco have a slight but clear edge heading into this Ligue 1 meeting with Racing Club De Lens. The assessment points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with the hosts showing the stronger overall position. A draw remains a realistic outcome, so AS Monaco will need to turn their advantage into control during the decisive phases of the game.
The match is expected to be high-scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. That should encourage an open contest, with opportunities at both ends rather than a cautious battle dominated by defensive structure. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0, reflecting both the possibility of Racing Club De Lens staying close and the potential for AS Monaco to prevail. The overall signal gives the hosts protection against a draw, while leaving the visitors with a credible chance of taking something from the match.
What matters before kick-off
Monaco host Lens on Ligue 1 Matchday 5
AS Monaco host RC Lens at Stade Louis-II on September 18, 2026, for Matchday 5 of Ligue 1. Monaco enter the match unbeaten in second place with 10 points from their opening four league fixtures.
Monaco defender Sadibou Sané ahead of Lens clash
Monaco defender Sadibou Sané highlighted the team's defensive stability alongside Eric Dier and confirmed their readiness for a tough test against Lens.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.