Angers SCO — ESTAC Troyes: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.4% |
| 12 | 72.4% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.7% / 40.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.5% / 19.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.4% / 66.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Angers SCO
11th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Le Havre 0:0
- 06.09.2026 home Rennes 1:2
- 29.08.2026 away Auxerre 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home Lille 0:2
- 17.05.2026 away Brest 1:1
ESTAC Troyes
12th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Lille 0:2
- 06.09.2026 home Strasbourg 2:6
- 29.08.2026 away Lorient 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Paris FC 0:0
- 09.05.2026 away Grenoble 0:1
This season: Angers SCO at home vs ESTAC Troyes away
| Metric | Angers SCO · at home | ESTAC Troyes · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.82 | 1.01 |
| xG against per match | 1.39 | 1.32 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Corners per match | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 20.04.2024 Angers SCO 2:1 ESTAC Troyes
- 16.12.2023 ESTAC Troyes 1:4 Angers SCO
- 27.05.2023 Angers SCO 2:1 ESTAC Troyes
- 28.08.2022 ESTAC Troyes 3:1 Angers SCO
- 23.01.2022 Angers SCO 2:1 ESTAC Troyes
- 26.09.2021 ESTAC Troyes 1:1 Angers SCO
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Angers SCO have a slight but well-supported edge over ESTAC Troyes in this Ligue 1 meeting. The overall assessment points toward the hosts being more likely to control the match, although the margin between the teams is not wide enough to suggest a one-sided contest. The stronger angle is therefore on Angers SCO avoiding defeat rather than on an emphatic home win.
The game is expected to produce a moderate number of goals, with neither a low-scoring stalemate nor an open attacking spectacle standing out clearly. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, making that aspect of the match finely balanced. The projected scorelines of 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0 reflect this uncertainty: ESTAC Troyes have a credible route to a draw, while Angers SCO retain the clearer path to a narrow victory. Overall, the hosts hold the advantage, but the match could remain competitive deep into the second half.
What matters before kick-off
Ligue 1 Round 5 Match
Angers SCO face ESTAC Troyes at the Stade Raymond Kopa in Round 5 of the 2026/2027 Ligue 1 season.
Angers home H2H streak
Angers SCO have won each of their last six home matches against ESTAC Troyes across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.