OGC Nice — Lille OSC: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.4% |
| 12 | 73.4% | |
| X2 | 71.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.1% / 19.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.0% / 44.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.6% / 66.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.2% / 82.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
OGC Nice
18th place · 2 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Auxerre 0:1
- 05.09.2026 home Le Mans 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Paris FC 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Lorient 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Metz 0:0
Lille OSC
4th place · 10 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Troyes 2:0
- 03.09.2026 away Toulouse 1:0
- 28.08.2026 home Paris SG 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Angers 2:0
- 17.05.2026 home Auxerre 0:2
This season: OGC Nice at home vs Lille OSC away
| Metric | OGC Nice · at home | Lille OSC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.09 | 1.16 |
| xG against per match | 1.28 | 2.70 |
| Shots on target per match | 1.50 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.04.2026 Lille OSC 0:0 OGC Nice
- 29.10.2025 OGC Nice 2:0 Lille OSC
- 17.01.2025 Lille OSC 2:1 OGC Nice
- 10.11.2024 OGC Nice 2:2 Lille OSC
- 19.05.2024 Lille OSC 2:2 OGC Nice
- 11.08.2023 OGC Nice 1:1 Lille OSC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
OGC Nice host Lille OSC in Ligue 1 on 20 September 2026, with the available signals giving Lille OSC a slight but credible edge. The away side is favored in the overall outcome assessment, while the X2 signal points toward Lille OSC avoiding defeat. That advantage is not large enough to remove the draw from consideration, so OGC Nice remain capable of making the contest competitive on home territory.
The match is projected to sit in a medium-scoring range rather than becoming either a very open shootout or a highly defensive stalemate. The assessment of both teams scoring is finely balanced, meaning the game could develop around a narrow Lille OSC success, a low-margin draw, or a result shaped by one decisive moment. The listed scorelines of 1:1, 1:2, and 0:1 reflect that uncertainty, with Lille OSC holding the stronger position but OGC Nice still presenting a meaningful challenge.
What matters before kick-off
Ligue 1 season start
Heading into matchday 5 of Ligue 1, OGC Nice occupied 18th place with two points from their first four games. Lille OSC sat top of the standings after securing ten points from four matches.
Head-to-head record
Across their previous 10 head-to-head meetings in all competitions, OGC Nice claimed four victories while Lille OSC won twice, alongside four draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.