AJ Auxerre — Stade Brest 29: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.1% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 68.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.6% / 38.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.6% / 18.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
AJ Auxerre
16th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Nice 1:0
- 04.09.2026 away Lyon 1:3
- 29.08.2026 home Angers 1:3
- 22.08.2026 away Lens 2:5
- 17.05.2026 away Lille 2:0
Stade Brest 29
9th place · 5 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Paris SG 0:1
- 05.09.2026 away Le Havre 2:1
- 29.08.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
- 22.08.2026 away Le Mans 2:2
- 17.05.2026 home Angers 1:1
This season: AJ Auxerre at home vs Stade Brest 29 away
| Metric | AJ Auxerre · at home | Stade Brest 29 · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.52 | 2.55 |
| xG against per match | 1.41 | 1.34 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 AJ Auxerre 3:0 Stade Brest 29
- 04.01.2026 Stade Brest 29 2:0 AJ Auxerre
- 14.02.2025 Stade Brest 29 2:2 AJ Auxerre
- 27.09.2024 AJ Auxerre 3:0 Stade Brest 29
- 14.05.2023 Stade Brest 29 1:0 AJ Auxerre
- 02.10.2022 AJ Auxerre 1:1 Stade Brest 29
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
AJ Auxerre host Stade Brest 29 in Ligue 1 on 20 September 2026. The available assessment points to an evenly matched contest, with moderate confidence rather than a strong advantage for either side. The expected pattern is medium-scoring, suggesting a game with a reasonable level of attacking activity but no clear indication of a one-sided encounter.
Both teams are likely to score, which makes a balanced result such as 1-1 a plausible scenario. The alternative scorelines also leave room for either side to edge the match, with 1-2 and 2-1 both consistent with the overall assessment. The X2 signal gives Stade Brest 29 a slight edge in terms of avoiding defeat, although the broader outlook remains close. AJ Auxerre should still have a realistic route to a positive result, particularly if they can turn home advantage into consistent pressure.
What matters before kick-off
Auxerre's First Victory
AJ Auxerre enter the match following a 1-0 victory over Nice in their previous Ligue 1 fixture, ending a three-game losing streak at the start of the season.
Brest's Recent Result
Stade Brestois 29 enter the fixture following a narrow 1-0 loss to Paris Saint-Germain in their previous Ligue 1 match.
Auxerre's Home Record Against Brest
AJ Auxerre have won their last two Ligue 1 home encounters against Stade Brestois 29 and remain undefeated against them at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps since 2018.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.