Le Mans FC — FC Lorient: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.0% |
| 12 | 70.2% | |
| X2 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.3% / 20.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Le Mans FC
14th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Lens 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Nice 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Rennes 2:3
- 22.08.2026 home Brest 2:2
- 09.05.2026 away Bastia 2:0
FC Lorient
9th place · 5 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Toulouse 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Lens 1:0
- 29.08.2026 home Troyes 1:2
- 22.08.2026 away Nice 0:0
- 17.05.2026 home Le Havre 0:2
This season: Le Mans FC at home vs FC Lorient away
| Metric | Le Mans FC · at home | FC Lorient · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.63 | 1.44 |
| xG against per match | 2.18 | 1.15 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 2.50 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 04.02.2020 FC Lorient 4:2 Le Mans FC
- 23.08.2019 Le Mans FC 1:2 FC Lorient
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Le Mans FC and FC Lorient meet in Ligue 1 on 19 September 2026 in a contest that looks closely balanced. The available assessment points to an evenly matched game, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. Confidence in that reading is moderate, so the match could be shaped by small details rather than a pronounced difference in quality.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, and both teams are considered likely to find the net. That suggests an open enough contest without indicating a particularly high-scoring encounter. FC Lorient have a slight edge in the outcome signal, which favours them avoiding defeat, but the draw remains a substantial possibility. Le Mans FC should still have a realistic route into the game, especially if they can turn their attacking opportunities into an early goal.
What matters before kick-off
First Ligue 1 Meeting Since 2010
Le Mans and Lorient face each other in Ligue 1 for the first time since 2010.
Previous Matchday Results
Both teams enter the match following 2-2 draws on matchday four, with Le Mans sharing points against Lens and Lorient doing the same against Toulouse.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.