Tottenham Hotspur — Everton: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.9% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.9% / 21.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Tottenham Hotspur have a slight edge over Everton in this EPL meeting, although the outlook does not point to a one-sided contest. The available assessment supports the home side as the stronger of the two teams, with home protection also favoured. That suggests Tottenham Hotspur may be better placed to avoid defeat, while Everton remain capable of keeping the match competitive.
The expected pattern is medium-scoring rather than an especially open or defensive game. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so the match could develop in either direction depending on how the opening phases unfold. A narrow Tottenham Hotspur win and a draw both fit the overall assessment, with 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1 among the plausible scorelines. Overall, there is a clear but limited preference for Tottenham Hotspur, with Everton still carrying enough threat to prevent the hosts from being considered dominant.
What matters before kick-off
Tottenham Injury and Availability Updates
Tottenham Hotspur midfielder James Maddison has returned to the squad following a shoulder injury, whereas Mykhailo Mudryk and Dejan Kulusevski remain unavailable due to injuries.
Dominic Solanke Makes First Premier League Start of Season
Forward Dominic Solanke was named in Tottenham Hotspur's starting lineup to make his first Premier League start of the season.
Form Entering Matchweek Four
Tottenham Hotspur entered the match searching for their first league victory of the season after a 0-0 draw against Nottingham Forest, while Everton remained unbeaten following a 2-2 draw with Manchester United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.