Bournemouth — Brentford: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.7% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.7% / 28.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.7% / 10.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.1% / 70.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Bournemouth
15th place · 2 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Everton 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Man City 1:2
- 24.05.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:1
- 19.05.2026 home Man City 1:1
Brentford
5th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Sunderland 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Leeds 1:1
- 22.08.2026 home Tottenham 3:0
- 24.05.2026 away Liverpool 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:2
This season: Bournemouth at home vs Brentford away
| Metric | Bournemouth · at home | Brentford · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.15 | 1.56 |
| xG against per match | 1.84 | 1.43 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.03.2026 Bournemouth 0:0 Brentford
- 27.12.2025 Brentford 4:1 Bournemouth
- 15.03.2025 Bournemouth 1:2 Brentford
- 09.11.2024 Brentford 3:2 Bournemouth
- 11.05.2024 Bournemouth 1:2 Brentford
- 02.09.2023 Brentford 2:2 Bournemouth
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bournemouth and Brentford appear evenly matched ahead of their EPL meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts neither a clear advantage nor a significant disadvantage, pointing instead to a contest where the balance could shift during the match. With moderate confidence in this reading, the safest analytical conclusion is that neither side stands out as clearly stronger.
The game is projected to have an open scoring pattern, with both Bournemouth and Brentford likely to find the net. That suggests an encounter shaped by attacking intent and opportunities at both ends rather than a cautious, low-event battle. The expected outcome remains finely balanced, so the result may depend on which team makes better use of its chances and manages key moments more effectively. A draw is one plausible scenario, but a narrow victory for either Bournemouth or Brentford also fits the overall profile.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek Cup Victory
Bournemouth secured a 4-0 home win against Lincoln City in the EFL Cup on Tuesday, with Ryan Christie scoring a hat-trick.
Bournemouth Absence List
Bournemouth remain without Eli Junior Kroupi, Amine Adli, Veljko Milosavljevic and Julian Araujo due to injuries.
Unconverted Leads
Bournemouth led in each of their opening three Premier League matches of the season but failed to win any of them, recording two draws and one loss.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.