Liverpool — Fulham: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.4% |
| 12 | 80.4% | |
| X2 | 35.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.0% / 30.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.44 → now 1.51 |
| X | was 4.95 → now 4.70 |
| W2 | was 6.50 → now 5.85 |
Match preview
Liverpool go into this EPL meeting with a clear but not overwhelming edge over Fulham. The assessment points to Liverpool being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be treated as decisive. Fulham remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly if they can respond effectively to Liverpool’s attacking pressure.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination makes a tight Liverpool win plausible, while a draw also remains a realistic alternative. The projected scorelines reflect a game in which Liverpool may create enough to lead, but Fulham could still contribute on the scoresheet. Overall, the balance favours Liverpool, but the likely pattern is a competitive encounter rather than a one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Liverpool team news
Liverpool forward Cody Gakpo remains a doubt with an adductor issue, while Bradley Barcola is expected to be available after suffering only cramps in midweek.
Liverpool recent result
Liverpool head into the fixture against Fulham following a 2-1 victory over Atletico Madrid at Anfield in the Champions League.
Fulham squad availability
Fulham manager Alvaro Arbeloa confirmed Tom Cairney remains the main absentee as he recovers from a minor knee procedure.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.