Liverpool — Fulham: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.4% |
| 12 | 80.4% | |
| X2 | 35.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.0% / 30.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Liverpool
7th place · 5 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 away Ipswich 2:0
- 29.08.2026 home Nott'm Forest 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 15.05.2026 away Aston Villa 2:4
Fulham
19th place · 0 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Sunderland 0:1
- 24.08.2026 home Chelsea 2:3
- 24.05.2026 home Newcastle 2:0
- 17.05.2026 away Wolves 1:1
This season: Liverpool at home vs Fulham away
| Metric | Liverpool · at home | Fulham · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–0 | 0–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.75 | 0.95 |
| xG against per match | 2.30 | 2.02 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 Liverpool 2:0 Fulham
- 04.01.2026 Fulham 2:2 Liverpool
- 06.04.2025 Fulham 3:2 Liverpool
- 14.12.2024 Liverpool 2:2 Fulham
- 21.04.2024 Fulham 1:3 Liverpool
- 03.12.2023 Liverpool 4:3 Fulham
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Liverpool go into this EPL meeting with a clear but not overwhelming edge over Fulham. The assessment points to Liverpool being the stronger side, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the gap should not be treated as decisive. Fulham remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly if they can respond effectively to Liverpool’s attacking pressure.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination makes a tight Liverpool win plausible, while a draw also remains a realistic alternative. The projected scorelines reflect a game in which Liverpool may create enough to lead, but Fulham could still contribute on the scoresheet. Overall, the balance favours Liverpool, but the likely pattern is a competitive encounter rather than a one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Liverpool team news
Liverpool forward Cody Gakpo remains a doubt with an adductor issue, while Bradley Barcola is expected to be available after suffering only cramps in midweek.
Liverpool recent result
Liverpool head into the fixture against Fulham following a 2-1 victory over Atletico Madrid at Anfield in the Champions League.
Fulham squad availability
Fulham manager Alvaro Arbeloa confirmed Tom Cairney remains the main absentee as he recovers from a minor knee procedure.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.