Sunderland — Arsenal: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 37.8% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 86.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.5% / 56.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.9% / 9.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.4% / 27.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.8% / 54.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Sunderland
12th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Brentford 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Fulham 1:0
- 22.08.2026 away Ipswich 1:2
- 24.05.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
- 17.05.2026 away Everton 3:1
Arsenal
2nd place · 9 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Aston Villa 1:0
- 21.08.2026 home Coventry 3:0
- 24.05.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:1
- 18.05.2026 home Burnley 1:0
This season: Sunderland at home vs Arsenal away
| Metric | Sunderland · at home | Arsenal · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.02 | 1.05 |
| xG against per match | 0.95 | 0.32 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 07.02.2026 Arsenal 3:0 Sunderland
- 08.11.2025 Sunderland 2:2 Arsenal
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Arsenal come into this EPL fixture with a clear qualitative advantage over Sunderland, although the confidence in that assessment is moderate rather than absolute. The overall signal points towards an away win, suggesting that Arsenal are expected to control more of the important phases of the match. Sunderland will need to stay compact, limit space between the lines and make their defensive work count, particularly if Arsenal establish possession in advanced areas.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with the most plausible score patterns pointing to a narrow Arsenal victory or a more open contest that could finish level. The prospect of both teams scoring is balanced, so Sunderland have a credible route into the game if they can turn their opportunities into goals. Arsenal remain the stronger side on the available information, but the moderate confidence leaves room for a competitive match rather than an entirely one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Sunderland Injury News
Sunderland manager Régis Le Bris confirmed that winger Romaine Mundle and midfielder Habib Diarra are both ruled out for the match against Arsenal due to injuries.
Arsenal Team News
Arsenal defender William Saliba remains sidelined with a back injury, while Jurrien Timber and Cristhian Mosquera have returned to full training ahead of the match.
Arsenal Form and Recent Result
Arsenal head into the match following a 1-0 midweek victory over Napoli in the UEFA Champions League, having won all three of their opening Premier League matches.
Head-to-Head Record
Arsenal enter the fixture unbeaten in their last 14 competitive matches against Sunderland dating back to February 2012.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.