Sunderland — Arsenal: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 38.2% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 86.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.9% / 57.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.8% / 55.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.6% / 76.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.5% / 89.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 7.35 → now 6.88 |
| X | was 4.35 → now 3.85 |
| W2 | was 1.50 → now 1.59 |
Match preview
Arsenal hold the clearer edge going into this EPL meeting with Sunderland. The assessment points to Arsenal as the stronger side, although the confidence is moderate rather than decisive. That suggests Sunderland may remain competitive, particularly if they can keep the match compact and limit the visitors’ opportunities to build sustained pressure.
The expected pattern is a medium-scoring contest, with neither an open shootout nor a particularly cautious game the most likely description. The possibility of both teams scoring is balanced, so Sunderland’s attacking contribution remains difficult to separate from the overall result outlook. Arsenal’s greater strength makes an away win the leading angle, but the moderate confidence leaves room for a close match, with a narrow Arsenal success and a draw among the plausible scorelines.
What matters before kick-off
Recent League Cup result
Sunderland enter the match following a 1-0 midweek victory over Hull City in the Carabao Cup.
Head-to-head history
Sunderland have won only one of their last 19 encounters against Arsenal across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.