Crystal Palace — Ipswich Town: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.9% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.6% / 20.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.2% / 66.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.85 → now 1.93 |
| X | was 3.90 → now 3.77 |
| W2 | was 4.16 → now 3.95 |
Match preview
Crystal Palace meet Ipswich Town in an EPL contest where the hosts hold a slight edge. The overall assessment points toward Crystal Palace having the stronger position, although the margin is not decisive. The expected character of the game is medium-scoring, suggesting a match with some attacking involvement without necessarily developing into an open contest.
There is no clear call on whether both teams will score, making that aspect finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines reflect that uncertainty: 1:1 keeps the match level, while 2:1 and 1:0 give Crystal Palace narrow victories. Taken together, the outlook supports Crystal Palace avoiding defeat, but Ipswich Town remain sufficiently competitive for a draw to be a realistic possibility. The balance therefore favours the hosts without removing the need for a controlled and measured performance.
What matters before kick-off
Crystal Palace Team News
Ismaila Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta remain unavailable for Crystal Palace due to injury. However, midfielder Cheick Doucoure is expected to be included in the matchday squad for the first time since early 2025 following his recovery.
Ipswich Town Availability
Ipswich Town midfielder Jack Taylor remains unavailable as he continues to recover from a knee injury. Meanwhile, Jaden Philogene has returned to full training and could feature in the squad.
Recent Palace Results
Crystal Palace head into the fixture following a busy week in which they secured a 3-2 Premier League victory over Fulham, followed by a 3-0 home win against Middlesbrough in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.