Chelsea — Hull City: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.7% |
| 12 | 88.0% | |
| X2 | 18.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.2% / 2.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.1% / 70.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Chelsea
4th place · 6 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Arsenal 1:2
- 30.08.2026 home Brighton 4:3
- 24.08.2026 away Fulham 3:2
- 24.05.2026 away Sunderland 1:2
- 19.05.2026 home Tottenham 2:1
Hull City
3rd place · 7 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Aston Villa 0:0
- 29.08.2026 away Coventry 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Man United 2:0
- 02.05.2026 home Norwich 2:1
- 25.04.2026 away Charlton 1:2
This season: Chelsea at home vs Hull City away
| Metric | Chelsea · at home | Hull City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.93 | 0.73 |
| xG against per match | 1.40 | 1.28 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Chelsea go into this EPL fixture against Hull City with the clearer overall position in the assessment. The hosts are clearly stronger, and the high confidence attached to that view points towards Chelsea controlling the match for long periods. Hull City will need to remain compact and disciplined, particularly if Chelsea can establish pressure early and create a high-tempo contest.
The scoring outlook suggests a match with several goals rather than a tightly contained affair. At the same time, whether both teams score is finely balanced, so the stronger home outlook does not necessarily depend on Hull City finding the net. The most plausible scorelines are 2:0, 3:0 and 2:1, all of which reflect Chelsea's advantage while allowing for different levels of resistance from Hull City. Overall, the assessment supports a home win, with the main uncertainty focused on the margin and whether the visitors can contribute to the scoring.
What matters before kick-off
Caicedo ruled out for Chelsea
Chelsea manager Xabi Alonso confirmed that midfielder Moises Caicedo remains unavailable against Hull City due to injury. However, Romeo Lavia is in contention to feature.
Chelsea's home record against Hull
Chelsea are unbeaten in 18 consecutive home league meetings against Hull City. The Tigers were also Chelsea's first competitive opponent at Stamford Bridge on 11 September 1905.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.