Chelsea — Hull City: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.7% |
| 12 | 88.0% | |
| X2 | 18.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.8% / 52.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.2% / 2.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.1% / 70.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 6.55 → now 7.35 |
| W2 | was 14.00 → now 13.45 |
Match preview
Chelsea go into this EPL fixture against Hull City with the clearer overall position in the assessment. The hosts are clearly stronger, and the high confidence attached to that view points towards Chelsea controlling the match for long periods. Hull City will need to remain compact and disciplined, particularly if Chelsea can establish pressure early and create a high-tempo contest.
The scoring outlook suggests a match with several goals rather than a tightly contained affair. At the same time, whether both teams score is finely balanced, so the stronger home outlook does not necessarily depend on Hull City finding the net. The most plausible scorelines are 2:0, 3:0 and 2:1, all of which reflect Chelsea's advantage while allowing for different levels of resistance from Hull City. Overall, the assessment supports a home win, with the main uncertainty focused on the margin and whether the visitors can contribute to the scoring.
What matters before kick-off
Caicedo ruled out for Chelsea
Chelsea manager Xabi Alonso confirmed that midfielder Moises Caicedo remains unavailable against Hull City due to injury. However, Romeo Lavia is in contention to feature.
Chelsea's home record against Hull
Chelsea are unbeaten in 18 consecutive home league meetings against Hull City. The Tigers were also Chelsea's first competitive opponent at Stamford Bridge on 11 September 1905.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.