Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.1% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 57.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.6% / 45.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.5% / 24.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Aston Villa
18th place · 1 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Hull 0:0
- 31.08.2026 home Arsenal 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Brighton 0:4
- 24.05.2026 away Man City 2:1
- 15.05.2026 home Liverpool 4:2
Nottingham Forest
16th place · 2 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Tottenham 0:0
- 29.08.2026 away Liverpool 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Leeds 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Bournemouth 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away Man United 2:3
This season: Aston Villa at home vs Nottingham Forest away
| Metric | Aston Villa · at home | Nottingham Forest · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–1 | 0–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.32 | 2.30 |
| xG against per match | 1.05 | 1.75 |
| Shots on target per match | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.04.2026 Nottingham Forest 1:1 Aston Villa
- 03.01.2026 Aston Villa 3:1 Nottingham Forest
- 05.04.2025 Aston Villa 2:1 Nottingham Forest
- 14.12.2024 Nottingham Forest 2:1 Aston Villa
- 24.02.2024 Aston Villa 4:2 Nottingham Forest
- 05.11.2023 Nottingham Forest 2:0 Aston Villa
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Aston Villa have a slight edge over Nottingham Forest in this EPL meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a relatively open contest rather than a strongly one-sided outlook. The overall assessment leans towards Aston Villa avoiding defeat, with the draw remaining a significant possibility.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring character. There is no clear separation on whether both teams will score, so that aspect appears finely balanced. Aston Villa may have the stronger platform at home, but Nottingham Forest have enough indication in the projection to keep the game competitive and make a narrow result or draw plausible.
What matters before kick-off
Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest Team News
Aston Villa midfielder João Gomes is serving a domestic suspension, while Nottingham Forest defender Nicolò Savona remains sidelined due to a knee injury.
Aston Villa's Midweek Champions League Win
Ahead of their Premier League clash against Nottingham Forest, Unai Emery's side secured a 3-2 victory away against Club Brugge in their UEFA Champions League opener.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.