Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.1% |
| 12 | 71.7% | |
| X2 | 57.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.6% / 45.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.5% / 24.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.3% / 94.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 3.17 → now 3.33 |
Match preview
Aston Villa have a slight edge over Nottingham Forest in this EPL meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a relatively open contest rather than a strongly one-sided outlook. The overall assessment leans towards Aston Villa avoiding defeat, with the draw remaining a significant possibility.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring character. There is no clear separation on whether both teams will score, so that aspect appears finely balanced. Aston Villa may have the stronger platform at home, but Nottingham Forest have enough indication in the projection to keep the game competitive and make a narrow result or draw plausible.
What matters before kick-off
Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest Team News
Aston Villa midfielder João Gomes is serving a domestic suspension, while Nottingham Forest defender Nicolò Savona remains sidelined due to a knee injury.
Aston Villa's Midweek Champions League Win
Ahead of their Premier League clash against Nottingham Forest, Unai Emery's side secured a 3-2 victory away against Club Brugge in their UEFA Champions League opener.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.