Tottenham Hotspur — Aston Villa: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.9% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.0% / 20.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.3% / 66.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Tottenham Hotspur
17th place · 2 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Everton 0:0
- 05.09.2026 away Nott'm Forest 0:0
- 29.08.2026 home Newcastle 0:2
- 22.08.2026 away Brentford 0:3
- 24.05.2026 home Everton 1:0
Aston Villa
19th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away Hull 0:0
- 31.08.2026 home Arsenal 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Brighton 0:4
- 24.05.2026 away Man City 2:1
This season: Tottenham Hotspur at home vs Aston Villa away
| Metric | Tottenham Hotspur · at home | Aston Villa · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.87 | 1.11 |
| xG against per match | 0.93 | 2.17 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 0.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 Aston Villa 1:2 Tottenham Hotspur
- 19.10.2025 Tottenham Hotspur 1:2 Aston Villa
- 16.05.2025 Aston Villa 2:0 Tottenham Hotspur
- 03.11.2024 Tottenham Hotspur 4:1 Aston Villa
- 10.03.2024 Aston Villa 0:4 Tottenham Hotspur
- 26.11.2023 Tottenham Hotspur 1:2 Aston Villa
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Tottenham Hotspur have a slight but well-supported edge over Aston Villa in this EPL meeting. The assessment points towards a competitive match in which the hosts are more likely to control the overall balance, while Aston Villa remain capable of making the contest difficult. The signal favours Tottenham Hotspur avoiding defeat, rather than suggesting a one-sided performance.
The scoring outlook is moderate, with the most plausible game states ranging from a controlled Tottenham Hotspur win to a close draw. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the match may depend on which side manages the key moments more effectively. Scorelines such as 1:1, 2:1, and 2:0 reflect a relatively tight contest with a slight advantage for Tottenham Hotspur, while Aston Villa should still have enough presence to keep the outcome uncertain for long periods.
What matters before kick-off
Tottenham player availability
Tottenham Hotspur head coach Roberto De Zerbi confirmed that Pedro Porro, Sandro Tonali, and James Maddison are cleared to play against Aston Villa.
Aston Villa injury list
Aston Villa enter the fixture with several missing players, as Pau Torres, Ian Maatsen, Leon Goretzka, and Amadou Onana remain sidelined through injury.
Tottenham mid-week League Cup result
Tottenham Hotspur enter the match following a 3-1 defeat to Liverpool in the third round of the EFL Cup during mid-week.
Aston Villa mid-week League Cup win
Aston Villa secure momentum heading into Saturday after a 3-1 away victory over Coventry City in the third round of the EFL Cup.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.