Brentford — Chelsea: Win probabilities, 18.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.4% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 63.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 76.1% / 23.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.6% / 7.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.6% / 25.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.5% / 45.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.0% / 65.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.8% / 80.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.09.2026
Brentford
7th place · 6 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Bournemouth 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Sunderland 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Leeds 1:1
- 22.08.2026 home Tottenham 3:0
- 24.05.2026 away Liverpool 1:1
Chelsea
6th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Hull 2:2
- 06.09.2026 away Arsenal 1:2
- 30.08.2026 home Brighton 4:3
- 24.08.2026 away Fulham 3:2
- 24.05.2026 away Sunderland 1:2
This season: Brentford at home vs Chelsea away
| Metric | Brentford · at home | Chelsea · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.54 | 1.05 |
| xG against per match | 1.14 | 1.70 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.50 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.01.2026 Chelsea 2:0 Brentford
- 13.09.2025 Brentford 2:2 Chelsea
- 06.04.2025 Brentford 0:0 Chelsea
- 15.12.2024 Chelsea 2:1 Brentford
- 02.03.2024 Brentford 2:2 Chelsea
- 28.10.2023 Chelsea 0:2 Brentford
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Brentford and Chelsea look evenly matched ahead of their EPL meeting on 18 September 2026. The available assessment gives no clear overall advantage to either side, so the main expectation is a competitive contest in which both teams have credible routes to control periods of the game. Rather than pointing toward a one-sided outcome, the matchup suggests that small details in possession, transitions and finishing could shape the result.
The scoring outlook is high, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes an open game more plausible than a cautious encounter, particularly if either side scores early and the other is forced to respond. The most consistent scoreline projections are 1:1, 1:2 and 2:2, reflecting a narrow range between a draw and a close Chelsea win while still keeping Brentford firmly in contention. Overall, the teams are evenly matched, with goals expected at both ends and little to separate them before kick-off.
What matters before kick-off
Chelsea Team News
Chelsea head coach Xabi Alonso confirmed that no players have been ruled out ahead of the match against Brentford, with final decisions to be made on Joao Pedro and Reece James prior to kick-off.
Recent Team Results
Ahead of this west London derby, both Brentford and Chelsea played out 2-2 draws in their previous Premier League fixtures.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.