Nottingham Forest — Coventry City: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 84.2% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.7% / 48.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.7% / 7.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.3% / 21.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Nottingham Forest
11th place · 5 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Aston Villa 2:1
- 05.09.2026 home Tottenham 0:0
- 29.08.2026 away Liverpool 2:2
- 22.08.2026 home Leeds 0:1
- 24.05.2026 home Bournemouth 1:1
Coventry City
20th place · 0 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Brighton 0:5
- 05.09.2026 away Man City 0:1
- 29.08.2026 home Hull 0:1
- 21.08.2026 away Arsenal 0:3
- 02.05.2026 away Watford 4:0
This season: Nottingham Forest at home vs Coventry City away
| Metric | Nottingham Forest · at home | Coventry City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–1 | 0–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| xG against per match | 0.77 | 2.00 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Corners per match | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 06.04.2022 Nottingham Forest 2:0 Coventry City
- 08.08.2021 Coventry City 2:1 Nottingham Forest
- 02.02.2021 Coventry City 1:2 Nottingham Forest
- 04.11.2020 Nottingham Forest 2:1 Coventry City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Nottingham Forest enter this EPL meeting with a moderate but clear qualitative edge over Coventry City. The assessment points towards the home side being stronger overall, while the W1 market signal supports a home-oriented reading of the match. That advantage should still be treated with some caution, as the confidence level is moderate rather than decisive.
The expected character is medium-scoring, with the available likely scorelines ranging from a tight Nottingham Forest victory to a controlled two-goal home win, while a 1:1 draw is also included among the leading possibilities. Whether both teams score is considered evenly balanced, so there is no strong basis for favouring either outcome in that market. Overall, Nottingham Forest have the more favourable profile, but Coventry City remain capable of keeping the contest close, particularly if the opening stages remain level.
What matters before kick-off
Nikola Milenkovic ruled out with injury
Nottingham Forest manager Oliver Glasner confirmed that defender Nikola Milenkovic will miss the match against Coventry City due to a hamstring injury.
First City Ground meeting since 2022
Nottingham Forest are hosting Coventry City at the City Ground for the first time since 2022.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.