Newcastle United — Hull City: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.1% |
| 12 | 78.7% | |
| X2 | 38.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.7% / 31.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Newcastle United
12th place · 5 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.09.2026 away Leeds 1:4
- 05.09.2026 home Bournemouth 2:2
- 29.08.2026 away Tottenham 2:0
- 23.08.2026 home Liverpool 2:2
- 24.05.2026 away Fulham 0:2
Hull City
5th place · 8 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Chelsea 2:2
- 05.09.2026 home Aston Villa 0:0
- 29.08.2026 away Coventry 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Man United 2:0
- 02.05.2026 home Norwich 2:1
This season: Newcastle United at home vs Hull City away
| Metric | Newcastle United · at home | Hull City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| xG against per match | 2.18 | 1.09 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Newcastle United go into this EPL fixture as the clearly stronger side against Hull City, although the assessment carries moderate confidence rather than pointing to an assured outcome. The main indication is a home advantage in overall strength, while the scoring outlook suggests an open match with several chances at both ends.
Hull City are still considered capable of contributing to the scoreline, with both teams likely to score. That makes a narrow Newcastle United victory a plausible scenario, but a draw also remains within the expected range. The projected score patterns include 2-1, 1-1 and 2-0, reflecting a contest that could be decided by small margins. Overall, Newcastle United have the stronger profile, while the high-scoring signal and the possibility of goals from Hull City argue against expecting a one-sided game.
What matters before kick-off
Premier League Matchweek 5 fixture
Newcastle United host Hull City at St James' Park in Matchweek 5 of the 2026–27 Premier League season.
Newcastle United's recent result
Newcastle United enter the fixture following a 4–1 defeat against Leeds United in their previous Premier League match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.