Bournemouth — Liverpool: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.9% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 68.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.9% / 8.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.7% / 26.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.0% / 81.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
Bournemouth
16th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Brentford 2:2
- 05.09.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 29.08.2026 home Everton 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Man City 1:2
- 24.05.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:1
Liverpool
10th place · 6 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Fulham 0:0
- 04.09.2026 away Ipswich 2:0
- 29.08.2026 home Nott'm Forest 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away Newcastle 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home Brentford 1:1
This season: Bournemouth at home vs Liverpool away
| Metric | Bournemouth · at home | Liverpool · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–2–0 | 1–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.95 | 1.83 |
| xG against per match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Shots on target per match | 7.50 | 7.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.01.2026 Bournemouth 3:2 Liverpool
- 15.08.2025 Liverpool 4:2 Bournemouth
- 01.02.2025 Bournemouth 0:2 Liverpool
- 21.09.2024 Liverpool 3:0 Bournemouth
- 21.01.2024 Bournemouth 0:4 Liverpool
- 19.08.2023 Liverpool 3:1 Bournemouth
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bournemouth face Liverpool in the EPL on 20 September 2026, with the available indicators pointing to a competitive match and a slight edge for the visitors. The confidence level is moderate, so the outlook is not one-sided. Liverpool appear better placed to avoid defeat, while a draw remains a meaningful possibility.
The match is projected to be high-scoring, with both Bournemouth and Liverpool likely to find the net. The listed scorelines, 1:1, 1:2 and 2:1, reflect a narrow contest rather than a clear gap between the teams. Bournemouth should have opportunities in attack, but Liverpool hold the stronger overall outcome signal. The main analytical angle is therefore Liverpool or draw, combined with expectations of goals at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Liverpool beat Tottenham in Carabao Cup
Liverpool enter the fixture following a 3-1 victory over Tottenham Hotspur in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday.
Andoni Iraola faces former club Bournemouth
Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola returns to Vitality Stadium for the first time since leaving Bournemouth in the summer.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.