Manchester City — Sunderland: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.4% |
| 12 | 82.7% | |
| X2 | 26.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.4% / 42.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.6% / 30.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.2% / 70.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
Manchester City
1st place · 12 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Man United 1:0
- 05.09.2026 home Coventry 1:0
- 28.08.2026 away Crystal Palace 4:1
- 23.08.2026 home Bournemouth 2:1
- 24.05.2026 home Aston Villa 1:2
Sunderland
14th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Arsenal 0:2
- 05.09.2026 away Brentford 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Fulham 1:0
- 22.08.2026 away Ipswich 1:2
- 24.05.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
This season: Manchester City at home vs Sunderland away
| Metric | Manchester City · at home | Sunderland · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 2–0–0 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.24 | 1.19 |
| xG against per match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 01.01.2026 Sunderland 0:0 Manchester City
- 06.12.2025 Manchester City 3:0 Sunderland
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Manchester City go into this EPL meeting with Sunderland as the clearly stronger side, and the high confidence in the home outcome gives the hosts a substantial analytical advantage. The available signal points towards a home win, while the scoring outlook suggests an open match with several goals possible. That combination makes Manchester City the more convincing side across the overall assessment.
Sunderland remain capable of contributing to an uncertain goals market, since both teams scoring is considered a coin flip rather than a clear expectation. The more likely score patterns, however, consistently favour Manchester City, with controlled home wins among the leading scenarios. The main question is therefore not which team has the stronger position, but whether Sunderland can turn the match into a competitive contest or whether Manchester City’s superiority is reflected on the scoreboard.
What matters before kick-off
Foden's suspension
Manchester City midfielder Phil Foden is serving the second game of a three-match suspension following his red card against Manchester United.
Sunderland's Europa League victory
In midweek, Sunderland secured a 1-0 victory against Dutch side AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.