Brighton and Hove Albion — Arsenal: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 43.0% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 81.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.2% / 6.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.6% / 21.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.1% / 45.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.8% / 68.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.9% / 84.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 19.09.2026
Brighton and Hove Albion
6th place · 7 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 away Coventry 5:0
- 05.09.2026 home Leeds 1:1
- 30.08.2026 away Chelsea 3:4
- 23.08.2026 home Aston Villa 4:0
- 24.05.2026 home Man United 0:3
Arsenal
1st place · 12 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Sunderland 2:0
- 06.09.2026 home Chelsea 2:1
- 31.08.2026 away Aston Villa 1:0
- 21.08.2026 home Coventry 3:0
- 24.05.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:1
This season: Brighton and Hove Albion at home vs Arsenal away
| Metric | Brighton and Hove Albion · at home | Arsenal · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 2–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.99 | 1.47 |
| xG against per match | 1.39 | 1.06 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.50 | 3.50 |
| Corners per match | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.03.2026 Brighton and Hove Albion 0:1 Arsenal
- 27.12.2025 Arsenal 2:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 04.01.2025 Brighton and Hove Albion 1:1 Arsenal
- 31.08.2024 Arsenal 1:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 06.04.2024 Brighton and Hove Albion 0:3 Arsenal
- 17.12.2023 Arsenal 2:0 Brighton and Hove Albion
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Brighton and Hove Albion face Arsenal in a contest that appears closely balanced, although the visitors hold a slight edge. The low confidence attached to that assessment suggests a match with limited separation between the teams, rather than a clear advantage for either side. Arsenal may have the stronger position in the overall outlook, but Brighton and Hove Albion remain firmly involved in the central scenario.
The scoring expectation points towards a medium-scoring match, with neither an especially open nor strongly defensive game indicated. Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, so the match could develop around a shared contribution in front of goal or see one side keep the other under control. Overall, Arsenal have the marginally more favourable projection, but the uncertainty leaves room for a competitive encounter and makes the balance of the game difficult to define with confidence.
What matters before kick-off
Carabao Cup victories ahead of league meeting
Both clubs enter the match following League Cup third-round victories in midweek, with Brighton coming back from 2-0 down to defeat Manchester United 3-2 and Arsenal securing a 4-2 win against Ipswich Town.
Arsenal's perfect start to the season
Arsenal started the 2026/27 season with seven consecutive victories across all competitions, including winning their opening four Premier League matches.
Brighton's extensive injury list
Brighton face a lengthy injury list ahead of the fixture, including key players such as Kaoru Mitoma, Yankuba Minteh, Mats Wieffer and Evan Ferguson.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.