Fulham — Manchester United: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.1% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 72.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.2% / 29.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.6% / 30.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.2% / 70.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.5% / 84.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
Fulham
20th place · 1 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Liverpool 0:0
- 05.09.2026 home Crystal Palace 2:3
- 30.08.2026 away Sunderland 0:1
- 24.08.2026 home Chelsea 2:3
- 24.05.2026 home Newcastle 2:0
Manchester United
13th place · 4 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 13.09.2026 home Man City 0:1
- 06.09.2026 away Everton 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Ipswich 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away Hull 0:2
- 24.05.2026 away Brighton 3:0
This season: Fulham at home vs Manchester United away
| Metric | Fulham · at home | Manchester United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 0–0–2 | 0–1–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 2.25 | 1.26 |
| xG against per match | 1.84 | 1.01 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 6.50 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.02.2026 Manchester United 3:2 Fulham
- 24.08.2025 Fulham 1:1 Manchester United
- 26.01.2025 Fulham 0:1 Manchester United
- 16.08.2024 Manchester United 1:0 Fulham
- 24.02.2024 Manchester United 1:2 Fulham
- 04.11.2023 Fulham 0:1 Manchester United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fulham face Manchester United in an EPL meeting where the overall balance leans towards the visitors. Manchester United hold a slight edge in the outcome assessment, although the forecast does not point to a one-sided contest. Fulham remain in a position to make the match competitive, particularly in a game expected to produce opportunities at both ends.
The scoring outlook is high, with both Fulham and Manchester United likely to find the net. That combination leaves a draw as a credible possibility, while a narrow Manchester United victory is also consistent with the assessment. The central expectation is therefore a lively match with limited separation between the teams on the scoreboard. The market signal favours Manchester United avoiding defeat, but Fulham's attacking threat means the hosts should not be dismissed.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability updates
Fulham head coach Alvaro Arbeloa confirmed Kenny Tete is ruled out due to concussion protocols while Ryan Sessegnon faces a late fitness check. For Manchester United, manager Michael Carrick indicated that Carlos Baleba and Luke Shaw remain uncertain.
Recent League Cup elimination
Manchester United enter the match following a 3-2 home loss to Brighton in the Carabao Cup third round, having surrendered a two-goal lead.
Unbeaten run at Craven Cottage
Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 10 visits to Craven Cottage, recording eight wins and two draws.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.