Leeds United — Crystal Palace: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.8% / 20.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.2% / 66.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 20.09.2026
Leeds United
6th place · 8 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.09.2026 home Newcastle 4:1
- 05.09.2026 away Brighton 1:1
- 30.08.2026 home Brentford 1:1
- 22.08.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away West Ham 0:3
Crystal Palace
17th place · 3 pts after 4Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Ipswich 2:3
- 05.09.2026 away Fulham 3:2
- 28.08.2026 home Man City 1:4
- 22.08.2026 away Everton 0:2
- 24.05.2026 home Arsenal 1:2
This season: Leeds United at home vs Crystal Palace away
| Metric | Leeds United · at home | Crystal Palace · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 2 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–0 | 1–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.67 | 1.97 |
| xG against per match | 1.21 | 2.13 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.03.2026 Crystal Palace 0:0 Leeds United
- 20.12.2025 Leeds United 4:1 Crystal Palace
- 09.04.2023 Leeds United 1:5 Crystal Palace
- 09.10.2022 Crystal Palace 2:1 Leeds United
- 25.04.2022 Crystal Palace 0:0 Leeds United
- 30.11.2021 Leeds United 1:0 Crystal Palace
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Leeds United have a slight edge over Crystal Palace in this EPL meeting, although the low confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clear home advantage. The assessment suggests a medium-scoring match, with neither side separated by a strong overall signal. Leeds United may be marginally better placed to control the outcome, but Crystal Palace remain capable of keeping the game close.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop in more than one direction. The listed scorelines reflect that uncertainty: 1:1 points to an even contest, while 2:1 gives Leeds United a narrow winning margin and 2:0 represents a more controlled home performance. Overall, the profile favours Leeds United slightly, but the limited confidence makes a draw or a close result credible.
What matters before kick-off
Best Start in 25 Years for Leeds
Leeds United have accumulated eight points from their opening four Premier League matches of the 2026/27 season. This marks their best start to a top-flight campaign since the 2001/02 season.
Crystal Palace Defensive Record
Crystal Palace enter the match having conceded two or more goals in each of their previous 10 Premier League fixtures.
Premier League Debut for Referee Adam Herczeg
Referee Adam Herczeg has been appointed to take charge of the match between Leeds United and Crystal Palace at Elland Road. The fixture represents his first-ever Premier League assignment as main referee.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.