Toronto FC — Orlando City SC: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
43.7%
Home win
Toronto FC
X
24.7%
Draw
W2
31.6%
Away win
Orlando City SC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.3%
Both teams to score
Yes70.8%
Totals 2.5
Over69.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.4% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.8% / 29.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.9% / 11.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.3% / 70.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
Goal distribution model
Toronto FC × Orlando City SC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.2%
0:1
3.0%
0:2
3.7%
0:3
2.0%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
3.9%
1:1
10.3%
1:2
7.3%
1:3
4.0%
1:4
1.6%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.2%
2:1
8.6%
2:2
7.1%
2:3
3.9%
2:4
1.6%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
3.4%
3:1
5.6%
3:2
4.6%
3:3
2.5%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
1.6%
4:1
2.7%
4:2
2.2%
4:3
1.2%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
1.1%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:110.3%
2:18.6%
1:27.3%
2:27.1%
3:15.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Nashville SC 0:2
- 20.09.2026 away St. Louis City 1:3
- 13.09.2026 away Orlando City 0:3
- 10.09.2026 home Nashville SC 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 4:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:4
- 20.09.2026 away New England Revolution 2:4
- 13.09.2026 home Toronto FC 3:0
- 10.09.2026 away Atlanta Utd 3:2
- 06.09.2026 home San Diego FC 1:0
This season: Toronto FC at home vs Orlando City SC away
| Metric | Toronto FC · at home | Orlando City SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 4–8–2 | 3–2–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.07 | 1.79 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 3.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 86% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Toronto FC wins2
Draws0
Orlando City SC wins4
Goals per match3.83
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 13.09.2026 Orlando City SC 3:0 Toronto FC
- 18.10.2025 Toronto FC 4:2 Orlando City SC
- 02.03.2025 Orlando City SC 4:2 Toronto FC
- 04.07.2024 Toronto FC 1:2 Orlando City SC
- 28.04.2024 Orlando City SC 1:2 Toronto FC
- 21.10.2023 Toronto FC 0:2 Orlando City SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 2.88 → now 3.00 |
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