Inter Miami CF — New York City FC: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
65.2%
Home win
Inter Miami CF
X
18.3%
Draw
W2
16.5%
Away win
New York City FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X83.5%
Both teams to score
Yes67.7%
Totals 2.5
Over74.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.5% |
| 12 | 81.7% | |
| X2 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.5% / 2.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.6% / 9.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 54.8% / 45.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 35.2% / 64.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 20.0% / 80.0% |
Goal distribution model
Inter Miami CF × New York City FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.5%
0:1
2.1%
0:2
1.7%
0:3
0.7%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
4.7%
1:1
7.3%
1:2
4.4%
1:3
1.9%
1:4
0.6%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
6.9%
2:1
8.9%
2:2
5.7%
2:3
2.5%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
6.0%
3:1
7.7%
3:2
5.0%
3:3
2.2%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
3.9%
4:1
5.1%
4:2
3.3%
4:3
1.4%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
2.0%
5:1
2.6%
5:2
1.7%
5:3
0.7%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
2:18.9%
3:17.7%
1:17.3%
2:06.9%
3:06.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 28.09.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:2
- 21.09.2026 home San Diego FC 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Nashville SC 2:2
- 10.09.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:1
- 06.09.2026 home Atlanta Utd 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Atlanta Utd 2:2
- 19.09.2026 home New York Red Bulls 0:1
- 13.09.2026 away Real Salt Lake 2:0
- 10.09.2026 home New England Revolution 1:2
- 05.09.2026 home Nashville SC 0:0
This season: Inter Miami CF at home vs New York City FC away
| Metric | Inter Miami CF · at home | New York City FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 4–7–2 | 4–5–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.69 | 1.15 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 92% | 69% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Inter Miami CF wins3
Draws3
New York City FC wins0
Goals per match3.83
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 22.03.2026 New York City FC 2:3 Inter Miami CF
- 29.11.2025 Inter Miami CF 5:1 New York City FC
- 25.09.2025 New York City FC 0:4 Inter Miami CF
- 23.02.2025 Inter Miami CF 2:2 New York City FC
- 21.09.2024 New York City FC 1:1 Inter Miami CF
- 30.03.2024 Inter Miami CF 1:1 New York City FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.45 → now 1.50 |
| X | was 4.75 → now 5.00 |
| W2 | was 5.75 → now 5.50 |
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