CF Montreal — Atlanta United FC: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
42.6%
Home win
CF Montreal
X
24.9%
Draw
W2
32.6%
Away win
Atlanta United FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.1%
Both teams to score
Yes66.0%
Totals 2.5
Over64.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.4% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Goal distribution model
CF Montreal × Atlanta United FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.7%
0:1
4.6%
0:2
4.3%
0:3
2.2%
0:4
0.8%
0:5
0.3%
1
1:0
5.5%
1:1
11.0%
1:2
7.6%
1:3
3.9%
1:4
1.5%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.8%
2:1
8.8%
2:2
6.8%
2:3
3.5%
2:4
1.3%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
3.4%
3:1
5.2%
3:2
4.0%
3:3
2.0%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.5%
4:1
2.3%
4:2
1.8%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.0%
2:18.8%
1:27.6%
2:26.8%
2:05.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 3:1
- 20.09.2026 home Columbus Crew 0:2
- 13.09.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 10.09.2026 home Charlotte 1:2
- 06.09.2026 away Philadelphia Union 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home New York City 2:2
- 20.09.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:0
- 13.09.2026 away DC United 0:0
- 10.09.2026 home Orlando City 2:3
- 06.09.2026 away Inter Miami 2:2
This season: CF Montreal at home vs Atlanta United FC away
| Metric | CF Montreal · at home | Atlanta United FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 4–5–5 | 3–4–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.36 | 0.93 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.29 | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
CF Montreal wins2
Draws2
Atlanta United FC wins2
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 03.05.2026 Atlanta United FC 3:1 CF Montreal
- 10.08.2025 CF Montreal 1:1 Atlanta United FC
- 23.02.2025 Atlanta United FC 3:2 CF Montreal
- 23.10.2024 CF Montreal 2:2 Atlanta United FC
- 03.10.2024 Atlanta United FC 1:2 CF Montreal
- 14.07.2024 CF Montreal 1:0 Atlanta United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 2.80 → now 2.90 |
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