Chicago Fire — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
39.1%
Home win
Chicago Fire
X
23.4%
Draw
W2
37.5%
Away win
Philadelphia Union
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.6%
Both teams to score
Yes69.6%
Totals 2.5
Over68.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 62.5% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.6% / 30.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.5% / 3.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.6% / 12.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.4% / 52.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.4% / 71.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
Goal distribution model
Chicago Fire × Philadelphia Union
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.5%
0:1
4.4%
0:2
4.4%
0:3
2.6%
0:4
1.1%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
4.5%
1:1
9.7%
1:2
7.9%
1:3
4.6%
1:4
2.0%
1:5
0.7%
2
2:0
4.6%
2:1
8.1%
2:2
7.1%
2:3
4.2%
2:4
1.8%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
2.8%
3:1
4.9%
3:2
4.3%
3:3
2.5%
3:4
1.1%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
1.2%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.9%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.4%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.7%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.7%
2:18.1%
1:27.9%
2:27.1%
3:14.9%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.10.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 3:1
- 27.09.2026 away Charlotte 1:0
- 20.09.2026 away Nashville SC 0:3
- 13.09.2026 home New England Revolution 1:2
- 10.09.2026 home Inter Miami 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Orlando City 4:2
- 20.09.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 4:3
- 14.09.2026 away San Diego FC 5:0
- 10.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 5:0
- 06.09.2026 home CF Montreal 2:0
This season: Chicago Fire at home vs Philadelphia Union away
| Metric | Chicago Fire · at home | Philadelphia Union · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 8–1–4 | 5–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.92 | 2.21 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.15 | 2.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 79% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 79% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Chicago Fire wins2
Draws1
Philadelphia Union wins3
Goals per match3.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 21.03.2026 Philadelphia Union 1:2 Chicago Fire
- 01.11.2025 Chicago Fire 0:3 Philadelphia Union
- 26.10.2025 Philadelphia Union 2:2 Chicago Fire
- 24.08.2025 Philadelphia Union 4:0 Chicago Fire
- 26.06.2025 Chicago Fire 0:1 Philadelphia Union
- 04.07.2024 Chicago Fire 4:3 Philadelphia Union
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.80 → now 4.00 |
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