Nashville SC — Sporting Kansas City: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
78.7%
Home win
Nashville SC
X
12.4%
Draw
W2
8.9%
Away win
Sporting Kansas City
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X91.1%
Both teams to score
Yes59.5%
Totals 2.5
Over76.8%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 91.1% |
| 12 | 87.6% | |
| X2 | 21.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.5% / 40.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 98.4% / 1.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.0% / 9.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 57.5% / 42.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.9% / 62.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 22.1% / 77.9% |
Goal distribution model
Nashville SC × Sporting Kansas City
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
1.6%
0:1
1.8%
0:2
0.8%
0:3
0.3%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
5.5%
1:1
5.2%
1:2
2.6%
1:3
0.9%
1:4
0.2%
1:5
0.0%
2
2:0
8.2%
2:1
8.1%
2:2
4.0%
2:3
1.3%
2:4
0.3%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
8.4%
3:1
8.2%
3:2
4.1%
3:3
1.3%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
6.4%
4:1
6.3%
4:2
3.1%
4:3
1.0%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
3.9%
5:1
3.9%
5:2
1.9%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
3:08.4%
3:18.2%
2:08.2%
2:18.1%
4:06.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Toronto FC 2:0
- 20.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 3:0
- 13.09.2026 away Inter Miami 2:2
- 10.09.2026 away Toronto FC 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away New York City 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.10.2026 away Seattle Sounders 1:2
- 27.09.2026 away Houston Dynamo 2:0
- 20.09.2026 home Philadelphia Union 3:4
- 13.09.2026 home Los Angeles FC 3:1
- 06.09.2026 away FC Dallas 3:4
This season: Nashville SC at home vs Sporting Kansas City away
| Metric | Nashville SC · at home | Sporting Kansas City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 13–1–0 | 3–0–11 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.93 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.86 | 2.79 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 86% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
Nashville SC wins2
Draws0
Sporting Kansas City wins2
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored3/4
Over 2.5 goals4/4
- 21.09.2023 Sporting Kansas City 0:3 Nashville SC
- 19.06.2022 Nashville SC 1:2 Sporting Kansas City
- 10.04.2022 Sporting Kansas City 1:2 Nashville SC
- 12.10.2020 Sporting Kansas City 2:1 Nashville SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 6.00 → now 7.00 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.