FC Dallas — Seattle Sounders: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
45.8%
Home win
FC Dallas
X
24.9%
Draw
W2
29.4%
Away win
Seattle Sounders
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.1%
Both teams to score
Yes65.7%
Totals 2.5
Over64.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.6% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 54.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.7% / 34.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.3% / 14.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.0% / 58.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.8% / 76.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.7% / 88.3% |
Goal distribution model
FC Dallas × Seattle Sounders
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.8%
0:1
4.2%
0:2
3.9%
0:3
1.9%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
5.7%
1:1
11.0%
1:2
7.2%
1:3
3.5%
1:4
1.3%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
6.3%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.6%
2:3
3.2%
2:4
1.2%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.9%
3:1
5.6%
3:2
4.1%
3:3
2.0%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.8%
4:1
2.6%
4:2
1.9%
4:3
0.9%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.7%
5:1
1.0%
5:2
0.7%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.0%
2:19.1%
1:27.2%
2:26.6%
2:06.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Los Angeles FC 1:0
- 20.09.2026 home Austin FC 0:0
- 13.09.2026 home Portland Timbers 2:1
- 10.09.2026 away Minnesota United 2:1
- 06.09.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 4:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.10.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 2:1
- 27.09.2026 home Minnesota United 3:1
- 24.09.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:0
- 20.09.2026 away Colorado Rapids 3:3
- 13.09.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1
This season: FC Dallas at home vs Seattle Sounders away
| Metric | FC Dallas · at home | Seattle Sounders · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–5–2 | 3–5–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.92 | 0.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.54 | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 54% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Dallas wins0
Draws1
Seattle Sounders wins5
Goals per match1.83
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals2/6
- 26.04.2026 Seattle Sounders 2:1 FC Dallas
- 24.05.2025 Seattle Sounders 1:0 FC Dallas
- 13.04.2025 FC Dallas 0:1 Seattle Sounders
- 23.06.2024 Seattle Sounders 3:2 FC Dallas
- 14.04.2024 FC Dallas 0:0 Seattle Sounders
- 11.11.2023 Seattle Sounders 1:0 FC Dallas
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.91 → now 2.10 |
| X | was 3.60 → now 3.75 |
| W2 | was 3.50 → now 3.20 |
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