FC Cincinnati — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
48.1%
Home win
FC Cincinnati
X
22.6%
Draw
W2
29.3%
Away win
New England Revolution
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1277.4%
Both teams to score
Yes70.8%
Totals 2.5
Over71.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.7% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.8% / 29.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.8% / 3.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.1% / 10.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.3% / 28.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.4% / 49.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.1% / 68.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
Goal distribution model
FC Cincinnati × New England Revolution
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.2%
0:1
3.3%
0:2
3.2%
0:3
1.7%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
4.4%
1:1
9.1%
1:2
6.7%
1:3
3.6%
1:4
1.5%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.4%
2:1
8.7%
2:2
7.0%
2:3
3.8%
2:4
1.5%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
3.8%
3:1
6.0%
3:2
4.9%
3:3
2.6%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
2.0%
4:1
3.1%
4:2
2.5%
4:3
1.4%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
1.3%
5:2
1.1%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.1%
2:18.7%
2:27.0%
1:26.7%
3:16.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away CF Montreal 1:3
- 20.09.2026 away Houston Dynamo 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Charlotte 3:3
- 10.09.2026 away Philadelphia Union 0:5
- 30.08.2026 away Nashville SC 0:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Real Salt Lake 0:3
- 20.09.2026 home Orlando City 4:2
- 13.09.2026 away Chicago Fire 2:1
- 10.09.2026 away New York City 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 1:2
This season: FC Cincinnati at home vs New England Revolution away
| Metric | FC Cincinnati · at home | New England Revolution · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–2 | 5–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.83 | 1.36 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 79% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 71% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Cincinnati wins3
Draws1
New England Revolution wins2
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 15.03.2026 New England Revolution 6:1 FC Cincinnati
- 15.06.2025 New England Revolution 0:1 FC Cincinnati
- 06.04.2025 FC Cincinnati 1:0 New England Revolution
- 23.06.2024 FC Cincinnati 1:2 New England Revolution
- 17.03.2024 New England Revolution 1:2 FC Cincinnati
- 02.07.2023 FC Cincinnati 2:2 New England Revolution
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.90 → now 2.00 |
| X | was 3.90 → now 4.10 |
| W2 | was 3.40 → now 3.20 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.