DC United — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 14.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
53.7%
Home win
DC United
X
21.9%
Draw
W2
24.4%
Away win
New York Red Bulls
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1278.1%
Both teams to score
Yes65.6%
Totals 2.5
Over67.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.6% |
| 12 | 78.1% | |
| X2 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.3% / 13.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.3% / 54.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.6% / 86.4% |
Goal distribution model
DC United × New York Red Bulls
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.6%
0:1
3.9%
0:2
2.9%
0:3
1.3%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
6.2%
1:1
9.5%
1:2
6.2%
1:3
2.8%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.9%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
6.4%
2:3
2.9%
2:4
1.0%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
4.8%
3:1
6.6%
3:2
4.5%
3:3
2.0%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.5%
4:1
3.4%
4:2
2.3%
4:3
1.1%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.0%
5:1
1.4%
5:2
1.0%
5:3
0.4%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:19.5%
2:19.4%
2:06.9%
3:16.6%
2:26.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 3:3
- 20.09.2026 home Charlotte 1:2
- 13.09.2026 home Atlanta Utd 0:0
- 10.09.2026 home Columbus Crew 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Los Angeles FC 0:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.10.2026 home St. Louis City 0:3
- 19.09.2026 away New York City 1:0
- 13.09.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:2
- 06.09.2026 away Seattle Sounders 0:0
This season: DC United at home vs New York Red Bulls away
| Metric | DC United · at home | New York Red Bulls · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 4–5–5 | 5–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.79 | 1.79 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
DC United wins1
Draws2
New York Red Bulls wins3
Goals per match5.00
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 23.04.2026 New York Red Bulls 4:4 DC United
- 25.05.2025 DC United 0:2 New York Red Bulls
- 20.04.2025 New York Red Bulls 1:2 DC United
- 30.06.2024 New York Red Bulls 2:2 DC United
- 16.05.2024 DC United 1:4 New York Red Bulls
- 24.09.2023 DC United 3:5 New York Red Bulls
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.80 → now 4.20 |
| W2 | was 3.60 → now 3.80 |
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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.