Toronto FC — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.6% / 16.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.3% / 38.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.0% / 61.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Toronto FC have a slight edge over New England Revolution in this MLS matchup, although the assessment points more toward a competitive contest than a one-sided game. The home side’s advantage is supported by the overall signal, but the available outlook still leaves room for New England Revolution to make the match difficult, particularly if they can contribute consistently in attack.
A high-scoring game is expected, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a narrow Toronto FC victory a plausible scenario, while a draw also fits the profile of a balanced match with attacking intent from both sides. The most consistent scoreline range points toward outcomes such as 1-1, 2-1, or 2-0, with the home team marginally better placed to take control. The key question will be whether Toronto FC can turn their home advantage into defensive stability without reducing the attacking tempo that should shape this fixture.
What matters before kick-off
Revolution road stretch
The match at BMO Field against Toronto FC begins a heavy away stretch for New England Revolution, who play six of their next seven MLS fixtures on the road.
Recent head-to-head meeting
Toronto FC and New England Revolution faced each other just three weeks earlier, drawing 0-0 at Gillette Stadium on July 23, 2026.
Judah Siqueira short-term agreement
On August 15, 2026, New England Revolution signed 17-year-old reserve team midfielder Judah Siqueira to a short-term agreement ahead of the match against Toronto FC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.