Toronto FC — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.5% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 59.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.8% / 6.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.6% / 45.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.3% / 67.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.3% / 83.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Toronto FC and New England Revolution appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence rather than a decisive advantage for either side, making the balance of the contest difficult to separate. Toronto FC will have home conditions in their favour, while New England Revolution remain close enough in the overall outlook to keep the match competitive.
The game is expected to produce a medium level of scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests an open enough contest without indicating an especially high-scoring match. A draw is a realistic possibility, with 1:1 among the plausible scorelines, while narrow Toronto FC victories such as 2:1 or 1:0 also fit the assessment. Overall, the forecast points toward protection for the home side and a match where neither team holds a clear edge.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.