Toronto FC — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.0% / 37.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.6% / 16.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.3% / 38.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.0% / 61.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.08.2026 away New York City 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away DC United 1:2
- 23.07.2026 away New England Revolution 0:0
- 17.07.2026 away CF Montreal 0:0
- 24.05.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 home Houston Dynamo 0:2
- 02.08.2026 away CF Montreal 2:2
- 26.07.2026 home Atlanta Utd 4:1
- 23.07.2026 home Toronto FC 0:0
- 24.05.2026 away Charlotte 0:1
This season: Toronto FC at home vs New England Revolution away
| Metric | Toronto FC · at home | New England Revolution · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 7 |
| W–D–L | 2–5–2 | 1–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.89 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.86 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 71% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.07.2026 New England Revolution 0:0 Toronto FC
- 14.09.2025 New England Revolution 1:1 Toronto FC
- 03.05.2025 Toronto FC 0:2 New England Revolution
- 21.04.2024 Toronto FC 1:0 New England Revolution
- 03.03.2024 New England Revolution 0:1 Toronto FC
- 25.06.2023 New England Revolution 2:1 Toronto FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Toronto FC have a slight edge over New England Revolution in this MLS matchup, although the assessment points more toward a competitive contest than a one-sided game. The home side’s advantage is supported by the overall signal, but the available outlook still leaves room for New England Revolution to make the match difficult, particularly if they can contribute consistently in attack.
A high-scoring game is expected, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a narrow Toronto FC victory a plausible scenario, while a draw also fits the profile of a balanced match with attacking intent from both sides. The most consistent scoreline range points toward outcomes such as 1-1, 2-1, or 2-0, with the home team marginally better placed to take control. The key question will be whether Toronto FC can turn their home advantage into defensive stability without reducing the attacking tempo that should shape this fixture.
What matters before kick-off
Revolution road stretch
The match at BMO Field against Toronto FC begins a heavy away stretch for New England Revolution, who play six of their next seven MLS fixtures on the road.
Recent head-to-head meeting
Toronto FC and New England Revolution faced each other just three weeks earlier, drawing 0-0 at Gillette Stadium on July 23, 2026.
Judah Siqueira short-term agreement
On August 15, 2026, New England Revolution signed 17-year-old reserve team midfielder Judah Siqueira to a short-term agreement ahead of the match against Toronto FC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.