Atlanta United FC — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.4% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.8% / 13.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.1% / 32.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.4% / 54.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.7% / 73.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.7% / 86.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Atlanta United FC have a slight edge over New York Red Bulls in this MLS matchup. The assessment points toward the home side being better placed, although the balance is not so one-sided that the visitors can be discounted. New York Red Bulls remain a credible threat, particularly in a game expected to offer plenty of attacking activity.
The scoring outlook is high, with both Atlanta United FC and New York Red Bulls likely to find the net. That makes a closely contested match more plausible than a one-sided defensive encounter. The most prominent scorelines indicate a narrow Atlanta victory or a draw, with results such as 2-1, 2-0 and 1-1 reflecting the expected home advantage and open character of the contest. Overall, Atlanta United FC hold the stronger position, but New York Red Bulls have enough attacking potential to keep the match competitive.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.