Atlanta United FC — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.3% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 51.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.6% / 29.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:3
- 26.07.2026 away New England Revolution 1:4
- 23.07.2026 away Charlotte 2:2
- 18.07.2026 away Nashville SC 0:1
- 24.05.2026 away Columbus Crew 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home Orlando City 3:2
- 25.07.2026 home Charlotte 0:2
- 23.07.2026 away Philadelphia Union 1:3
- 24.05.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 2:1
- 17.05.2026 home New York City 1:1
This season: Atlanta United FC at home vs New York Red Bulls away
| Metric | Atlanta United FC · at home | New York Red Bulls · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–5 | 3–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.38 | 1.44 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.75 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 89% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.06.2025 New York Red Bulls 2:0 Atlanta United FC
- 09.03.2025 Atlanta United FC 0:0 New York Red Bulls
- 06.10.2024 Atlanta United FC 2:1 New York Red Bulls
- 22.09.2024 New York Red Bulls 2:2 Atlanta United FC
- 25.06.2023 New York Red Bulls 4:0 Atlanta United FC
- 02.04.2023 Atlanta United FC 1:0 New York Red Bulls
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atlanta United FC enter this MLS meeting with a slight but credible edge over New York Red Bulls. The assessment points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, with the hosts holding the stronger overall position. New York Red Bulls remain well placed to make the game difficult, particularly if they can maintain pressure and turn transitions into opportunities.
The scoring outlook is positive, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests an open match in which neither side is expected to settle into a purely defensive approach, and momentum could shift as the game develops. Atlanta United FC should have enough to avoid defeat, but New York Red Bulls have the attacking potential to keep the result in doubt. The clearest reading is a high-scoring encounter with a high-confidence slight edge for Atlanta United FC, while a draw remains a realistic alternative.
What matters before kick-off
Atlanta United return to Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta United return to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for a home match for the first time in 98 days following the MLS break. The fixture marks their return to home turf against New York Red Bulls.
Potential home debuts for Atlanta defenders
Atlanta United's summer defensive additions, Júnior Alonso and Paulo Díaz, are in contention to make their home debuts against New York Red Bulls.
Atlanta United sign youngster to short-term agreement
Atlanta United signed 17-year-old midfielder Ignacio Suarez-Couri to a short-term agreement ahead of their match against New York Red Bulls.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.