Nashville SC — Inter Miami CF: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.6% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 62.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.2% / 29.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Nashville SC and Inter Miami CF appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting on 16 August 2026. The moderate confidence level points to a contest without a clear favourite, with both sides having a credible route to control periods of the game. That balance should make the tactical battle important, particularly in how each team manages transitions and responds when possession changes.
The available indicators point toward an open, high-scoring match in which both teams are likely to score. Neither Nashville SC nor Inter Miami CF has been given a decisive edge, so the outcome may depend on which side makes better use of its attacking opportunities and limits defensive exposure. A draw is a plausible reading of the matchup, but the close balance also leaves room for either team to edge the contest if it converts its chances more efficiently.
What matters before kick-off
Battle for first place in the Eastern Conference
Nashville SC enter the match leading the Eastern Conference with 40 points (12W-2L-4D), while Inter Miami CF sit just two points behind in second place with 38 points (11W-2L-5D).
Team news and player absences
Nashville SC remain without Warren Madrigal due to a knock, while Inter Miami CF will be without Micael Silva after he suffered an ankle injury that will keep him out for several months.
Nashville's dominant home record
Nashville SC enter the matchup as the best home team in MLS this regular season, holding an undefeated 8W-0L-1D record at GEODIS Park.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.