CF Montreal — DC United: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.2% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 57.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.7% / 42.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.2% / 21.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.0% / 46.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.7% / 68.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.8% / 84.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CF Montreal have a slight edge over DC United in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with a meaningful degree of uncertainty. The overall outlook points toward a medium-scoring game, with neither side established as clearly dominant. Montreal’s home advantage gives them the more favorable starting position, but DC United remain capable of making the match competitive.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the game could develop in more than one direction. A draw is a realistic outcome alongside a narrow Montreal victory, with a close scoreline more plausible than a one-sided result. The main scenario favors the hosts avoiding defeat, but DC United’s involvement should keep the contest open until the later stages.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.