Charlotte FC — Columbus Crew: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.0% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 55.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.9% / 21.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.4% / 44.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.0% / 67.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.4% / 92.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Charlotte FC and Columbus Crew meet in an MLS contest that looks relatively balanced, with a moderate lean toward the hosts. Charlotte FC have the slight edge in the overall assessment, but the gap is not large enough to make this a one-sided matchup. Columbus Crew remain capable of competing effectively away from home, so the visitors should not be discounted.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, with both teams likely to find the net. That points to an open contest in which defensive control may be difficult to maintain for either side. Charlotte FC’s home advantage gives them a narrow path to winning, while Columbus Crew have a credible chance of taking something from the game. A draw therefore remains a realistic possibility alongside a close home victory.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.