Charlotte FC — Columbus Crew: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.5% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.0% / 38.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.8% / 18.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Charlotte FC and Columbus Crew appear evenly matched heading into this MLS meeting. The moderate confidence level points to a contest without a clear favourite, with the hosts holding a slight positional advantage through the 1X signal. That suggests Charlotte FC may have enough balance to avoid defeat, but the gap between the sides remains limited and Columbus Crew should be capable of competing throughout.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That combination points toward an open contest in which neither defence is expected to control the game completely. Charlotte FC will look to use home advantage to shape the tempo, while Columbus Crew can be expected to remain involved and create pressure of their own. A draw is a credible outcome, although either side could edge a close game if it makes better use of its opportunities.
What matters before kick-off
Charlotte FC home record against Columbus Crew
Charlotte FC remains undefeated at home against Columbus Crew at Bank of America Stadium, posting three wins and one draw in four meetings.
Charlotte FC returns to MLS action
Charlotte FC returns to MLS regular-season play on August 15 after completing a stretch of three Leagues Cup matches in seven days.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.