Orlando City SC — FC Cincinnati: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.4% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 59.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 76.3% / 23.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.9% / 3.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 57.1% / 42.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:3
- 26.07.2026 home Nashville SC 1:0
- 23.07.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 4:0
- 24.05.2026 away FC Cincinnati 2:6
- 17.05.2026 home Atlanta Utd 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 4:2
- 26.07.2026 away Columbus Crew 1:2
- 23.07.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 4:3
- 24.05.2026 home Orlando City 6:2
- 17.05.2026 away San Diego FC 3:3
This season: Orlando City SC at home vs FC Cincinnati away
| Metric | Orlando City SC · at home | FC Cincinnati · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 4–1–3 | 1–4–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.88 | 1.89 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.63 | 2.78 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 89% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.05.2026 FC Cincinnati 6:2 Orlando City SC
- 29.09.2025 FC Cincinnati 1:1 Orlando City SC
- 29.06.2025 Orlando City SC 1:2 FC Cincinnati
- 06.10.2024 FC Cincinnati 1:3 Orlando City SC
- 05.05.2024 Orlando City SC 0:1 FC Cincinnati
- 03.09.2023 FC Cincinnati 0:1 Orlando City SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Orlando City SC and FC Cincinnati appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting on 15 August 2026. The available assessment gives no clear overall advantage to either side, so the contest may be shaped by small tactical details and how effectively each team manages the transition between defence and attack.
The stronger signal points toward an open, high-scoring game, with both teams likely to score. That suggests neither Orlando City SC nor FC Cincinnati is expected to control the match completely, and periods of pressure could develop at both ends. A balanced contest with several clear attacking moments is the most consistent reading of the available information, although the final outcome remains difficult to separate.
What matters before kick-off
Orlando City player status report
Orlando City have listed Eduard Atuesta, Nolan Miller, Braian Ojeda, and Martín Ojeda as out due to injury ahead of the match against FC Cincinnati.
Orlando City sign Issah Haruna to short-term agreement
Orlando City SC signed midfielder Issah Haruna from Orlando City B to a short-term agreement, making him available for selection against FC Cincinnati.
FC Cincinnati return to MLS after Leagues Cup exit
FC Cincinnati suffered a 2-1 defeat to Atlas in the Leagues Cup and turn their full attention back to MLS regular season play.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.