Houston Dynamo — Los Angeles Galaxy: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.4% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.2% / 19.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.1% / 42.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.7% / 65.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Houston Dynamo have a slight edge over Los Angeles Galaxy in this MLS matchup, although the low confidence level points to a finely balanced contest rather than a clear separation between the teams. The available outlook places Houston marginally ahead, but the range of likely outcomes includes a draw as well as a narrow home victory, suggesting that small details could shape the result.
The game is projected to produce a medium-scoring pattern, with neither side carrying a decisive advantage in the expectation that both teams will score. That makes the attacking balance difficult to assess: Houston Dynamo may have the stronger overall position, while Los Angeles Galaxy remain capable of keeping the match competitive. A controlled opening could give way to a more open second half, but the forecast still favours a close encounter rather than a one-sided performance.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.