Houston Dynamo — Los Angeles Galaxy: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.0% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away New England Revolution 2:0
- 02.08.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 2:0
- 26.07.2026 home Austin FC 3:0
- 23.07.2026 home DC United 1:1
- 24.05.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 home FC Dallas 0:0
- 26.07.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home St. Louis City 1:3
- 18.07.2026 home Los Angeles FC 0:3
- 24.05.2026 home Houston Dynamo 1:1
This season: Houston Dynamo at home vs Los Angeles Galaxy away
| Metric | Houston Dynamo · at home | Los Angeles Galaxy · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 6–1–2 | 3–3–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.44 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.78 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 89% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.05.2026 Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1 Houston Dynamo
- 07.09.2025 Houston Dynamo 1:1 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 13.04.2025 Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1 Houston Dynamo
- 20.10.2024 Houston Dynamo 2:1 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 26.05.2024 Los Angeles Galaxy 2:1 Houston Dynamo
- 03.09.2023 Los Angeles Galaxy 0:0 Houston Dynamo
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Houston Dynamo have a slight edge over Los Angeles Galaxy in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The home side are projected to have the stronger overall position, but Los Angeles Galaxy remain capable of making the game difficult and contributing to the result.
The attacking outlook points toward both teams finding the net, with the match carrying a high-scoring profile. At the same time, the Under market signal indicates that the game may not develop into an entirely open exchange, despite the expectation of goals from both sides. Houston Dynamo should be more likely to control key phases, while Los Angeles Galaxy can pose a threat in transition and during periods of sustained pressure. A narrow home win or a draw appears more consistent with the available indicators than a decisive result.
What matters before kick-off
Sellout crowd for Houston celebration night
Houston Dynamo FC announced a sellout crowd at Shell Energy Stadium for their match against LA Galaxy, which double as the club's 2006 Championship Celebration Night.
Houston Dynamo on a shutout run
Houston Dynamo FC enter the match on a streak of three consecutive shutout victories, most recently securing a 2-0 road win against the New England Revolution on August 8.
LA Galaxy recent MLS results
The LA Galaxy resume MLS play following back-to-back draws in league action, having played to a 1-1 result against San Jose and a 0-0 draw against FC Dallas.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.