Houston Dynamo — Los Angeles Galaxy: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.0% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.9% / 40.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.8% / 38.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Houston Dynamo have a slight edge over Los Angeles Galaxy in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The home side are projected to have the stronger overall position, but Los Angeles Galaxy remain capable of making the game difficult and contributing to the result.
The attacking outlook points toward both teams finding the net, with the match carrying a high-scoring profile. At the same time, the Under market signal indicates that the game may not develop into an entirely open exchange, despite the expectation of goals from both sides. Houston Dynamo should be more likely to control key phases, while Los Angeles Galaxy can pose a threat in transition and during periods of sustained pressure. A narrow home win or a draw appears more consistent with the available indicators than a decisive result.
What matters before kick-off
Sellout crowd for Houston celebration night
Houston Dynamo FC announced a sellout crowd at Shell Energy Stadium for their match against LA Galaxy, which double as the club's 2006 Championship Celebration Night.
Houston Dynamo on a shutout run
Houston Dynamo FC enter the match on a streak of three consecutive shutout victories, most recently securing a 2-0 road win against the New England Revolution on August 8.
LA Galaxy recent MLS results
The LA Galaxy resume MLS play following back-to-back draws in league action, having played to a 1-1 result against San Jose and a 0-0 draw against FC Dallas.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.