Toronto FC — Nashville SC: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.2% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 72.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.7% / 40.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.6% / 65.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Toronto FC and Nashville SC appear set for a competitive MLS meeting, with the available signals pointing to a slight edge for Nashville SC. The assessment favors the visitors avoiding defeat, while the overall balance remains close enough for a draw to be a realistic possibility. This suggests a match where Toronto FC can remain involved, but Nashville SC may have the stronger position across the result markets.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:2, and 0:2, reflecting a contest that could stay level for long periods before Nashville SC gains an advantage, or one in which the visitors make better use of their opportunities. Toronto FC should have a pathway to scoring, but the stronger indication is toward the X2 outcome, with Nashville SC either taking the points or securing a share of them.
What matters before kick-off
Nashville SC coming off scoreless draw
Nashville SC continue their road trip following a 0-0 draw against New York City FC in their previous MLS fixture.
Nashville SC lead Supporters' Shield standings
Nashville SC enter the Toronto FC matchup sitting atop both the Supporters' Shield and Eastern Conference standings with a 10-point lead.
Playoff clinch scenario for Nashville SC
Nashville SC can officially secure a berth in the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs with a victory against Toronto FC alongside favorable results across other matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.