Toronto FC — Nashville SC: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.2% |
| 12 | 74.2% | |
| X2 | 72.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.7% / 40.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.6% / 19.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.6% / 65.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 4:4
- 30.08.2026 home New York City 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away Inter Miami 2:1
- 20.08.2026 home Charlotte 3:3
- 16.08.2026 home New England Revolution 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away New York City 0:0
- 30.08.2026 home FC Cincinnati 4:0
- 23.08.2026 home Columbus Crew 3:2
- 20.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Inter Miami 4:1
This season: Toronto FC at home vs Nashville SC away
| Metric | Toronto FC · at home | Nashville SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 3–8–2 | 5–4–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.08 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.08 | 0.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 18% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 20.07.2025 Nashville SC 1:0 Toronto FC
- 25.05.2025 Toronto FC 1:2 Nashville SC
- 20.06.2024 Toronto FC 1:2 Nashville SC
- 16.05.2024 Nashville SC 2:0 Toronto FC
- 11.06.2023 Toronto FC 1:1 Nashville SC
- 09.04.2023 Nashville SC 0:0 Toronto FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Toronto FC and Nashville SC appear set for a competitive MLS meeting, with the available signals pointing to a slight edge for Nashville SC. The assessment favors the visitors avoiding defeat, while the overall balance remains close enough for a draw to be a realistic possibility. This suggests a match where Toronto FC can remain involved, but Nashville SC may have the stronger position across the result markets.
The expected profile is medium-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:2, and 0:2, reflecting a contest that could stay level for long periods before Nashville SC gains an advantage, or one in which the visitors make better use of their opportunities. Toronto FC should have a pathway to scoring, but the stronger indication is toward the X2 outcome, with Nashville SC either taking the points or securing a share of them.
What matters before kick-off
Nashville SC coming off scoreless draw
Nashville SC continue their road trip following a 0-0 draw against New York City FC in their previous MLS fixture.
Nashville SC lead Supporters' Shield standings
Nashville SC enter the Toronto FC matchup sitting atop both the Supporters' Shield and Eastern Conference standings with a 10-point lead.
Playoff clinch scenario for Nashville SC
Nashville SC can officially secure a berth in the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs with a victory against Toronto FC alongside favorable results across other matches.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.