Austin FC — Colorado Rapids: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.9% |
| 12 | 73.9% | |
| X2 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.7% / 41.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.9% / 21.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.6% / 67.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.5% / 83.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.2% / 92.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Austin FC and Colorado Rapids appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with moderate confidence in a balanced contest. The market signal leans toward a result that protects against a home defeat, but the gap between the teams remains narrow rather than decisive.
A medium-scoring match is the most suitable expectation, although there is no strong indication that both teams will score. That aspect looks finely balanced, so the game could develop through a cautious opening before becoming more open. The most plausible scorelines reflect the close nature of the matchup, with a draw or a one-goal victory for either Austin FC or Colorado Rapids all fitting the available picture. Overall, this looks like a competitive fixture in which small moments may carry significant weight, without a reliable basis for expecting one team to control the outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Player Availability Status
According to the official MLS player status report, Austin FC will be without Myrto Uzuni due to a lower body injury. Colorado Rapids are missing Zack Steffen, Ted Ku-DiPietro, Billo Diop, and Ali Fadal through injury.
Austin FC Recent Form
Austin FC enter the match unbeaten in their last four MLS games (two wins and two draws), most recently snatching a 1-1 draw against San Jose Earthquakes via a late stoppage-time equalizer.
Colorado Rapids Away Record
Colorado Rapids aim to snap a four-match away losing streak in MLS following a 3-0 road loss to Columbus Crew in their previous match.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.