New York City FC — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.1% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.3% / 17.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 10.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Nashville SC 0:0
- 30.08.2026 away Toronto FC 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away New England Revolution 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 2:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 1:2
- 30.08.2026 away Columbus Crew 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home New York City 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away DC United 3:0
- 16.08.2026 away Toronto FC 1:2
This season: New York City FC at home vs New England Revolution away
| Metric | New York City FC · at home | New England Revolution · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–4 | 3–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.08 | 1.36 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 73% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 73% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.08.2026 New England Revolution 1:1 New York City FC
- 20.04.2025 New England Revolution 2:0 New York City FC
- 15.03.2025 New York City FC 2:1 New England Revolution
- 26.05.2024 New England Revolution 0:1 New York City FC
- 14.04.2024 New York City FC 2:0 New England Revolution
- 03.06.2023 New York City FC 0:0 New England Revolution
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New York City FC and New England Revolution look evenly matched heading into their MLS meeting on 10 September 2026. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear superiority, with the visitors also carrying a comparable level of threat. That points to a contest likely to be decided by small details rather than a pronounced difference in overall strength.
The game is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, and both teams are likely to find the net. A draw is a credible possibility, while either side could also edge the match if it makes better use of its chances. The most plausible scorelines reflect that balance, with 1:1 standing alongside narrow wins for New York City FC or New England Revolution. Overall, the outlook remains cautious: the teams are evenly matched, with a slight lean toward the hosts avoiding defeat rather than a firm prediction of a winner.
What matters before kick-off
NYCFC Team News
New York City FC will be without six players for the match, including Keaton Parks, Kai Trewin, Maxi Moralez, Arnau Farnós, Talles Magno, and Drew Baiera.
New England Revolution Away Streak
The New England Revolution have not defeated New York City FC in an away match since 2021.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.