New York City FC — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 10.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.1% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.7% / 37.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.3% / 17.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 19.7% / 80.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.1% / 90.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New York City FC and New England Revolution look evenly matched heading into their MLS meeting on 10 September 2026. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear superiority, with the visitors also carrying a comparable level of threat. That points to a contest likely to be decided by small details rather than a pronounced difference in overall strength.
The game is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, and both teams are likely to find the net. A draw is a credible possibility, while either side could also edge the match if it makes better use of its chances. The most plausible scorelines reflect that balance, with 1:1 standing alongside narrow wins for New York City FC or New England Revolution. Overall, the outlook remains cautious: the teams are evenly matched, with a slight lean toward the hosts avoiding defeat rather than a firm prediction of a winner.
What matters before kick-off
NYCFC Team News
New York City FC will be without six players for the match, including Keaton Parks, Kai Trewin, Maxi Moralez, Arnau Farnós, Talles Magno, and Drew Baiera.
New England Revolution Away Streak
The New England Revolution have not defeated New York City FC in an away match since 2021.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.