Philadelphia Union — FC Cincinnati: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.3% |
| 12 | 78.5% | |
| X2 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.2% / 10.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.4% / 28.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.2% / 68.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home CF Montreal 2:0
- 30.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 3:1
- 23.08.2026 away Austin FC 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home Inter Miami 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away New York City 3:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Nashville SC 0:4
- 23.08.2026 home Seattle Sounders 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home New York City 2:1
- 16.08.2026 away Orlando City 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 4:2
This season: Philadelphia Union at home vs FC Cincinnati away
| Metric | Philadelphia Union · at home | FC Cincinnati · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–3 | 1–5–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.27 | 1.64 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 73% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 82% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 31.08.2025 FC Cincinnati 0:1 Philadelphia Union
- 02.03.2025 Philadelphia Union 4:1 FC Cincinnati
- 19.10.2024 Philadelphia Union 1:2 FC Cincinnati
- 20.06.2024 FC Cincinnati 4:3 Philadelphia Union
- 26.11.2023 FC Cincinnati 1:0 Philadelphia Union
- 17.09.2023 Philadelphia Union 2:2 FC Cincinnati
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Philadelphia Union have a slight edge over FC Cincinnati in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence level suggests a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. The available indicators point toward an open match, with attacking play expected to have a significant influence on the outcome. Philadelphia Union may be better placed to take control, but FC Cincinnati should have enough threat to remain involved.
Both teams are likely to score, making the balance between defensive discipline and efficient finishing particularly important. The projected scorelines include a draw as well as narrow Philadelphia Union victories, which reflects the limited margin separating the sides. A 1-1 result is plausible if FC Cincinnati can match the hosts' attacking output, while 2-1 would fit a scenario in which Philadelphia Union make better use of their advantage. The overall expectation is for a high-scoring encounter with opportunities at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Unexpected rest for FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati enter the midweek match fresh after their scheduled home fixture against D.C. United on Saturday was postponed due to heavy rainfall and poor pitch conditions.
Unbeaten run for Philadelphia
Philadelphia Union are on an eight-match unbeaten run in Major League Soccer play since returning from the summer World Cup break, securing six victories in that stretch.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.