Philadelphia Union — FC Cincinnati: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 78.7% | |
| X2 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.2% / 30.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.1% / 9.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 52.0% / 48.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.6% / 67.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Philadelphia Union have a slight edge over FC Cincinnati in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence level suggests a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. The available indicators point toward an open match, with attacking play expected to have a significant influence on the outcome. Philadelphia Union may be better placed to take control, but FC Cincinnati should have enough threat to remain involved.
Both teams are likely to score, making the balance between defensive discipline and efficient finishing particularly important. The projected scorelines include a draw as well as narrow Philadelphia Union victories, which reflects the limited margin separating the sides. A 1-1 result is plausible if FC Cincinnati can match the hosts' attacking output, while 2-1 would fit a scenario in which Philadelphia Union make better use of their advantage. The overall expectation is for a high-scoring encounter with opportunities at both ends.
What matters before kick-off
Unexpected rest for FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati enter the midweek match fresh after their scheduled home fixture against D.C. United on Saturday was postponed due to heavy rainfall and poor pitch conditions.
Unbeaten run for Philadelphia
Philadelphia Union are on an eight-match unbeaten run in Major League Soccer play since returning from the summer World Cup break, securing six victories in that stretch.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.