CF Montreal — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.7% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 60.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.3% / 32.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.9% / 14.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.0% / 56.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CF Montreal and Charlotte FC appear evenly matched for this MLS meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in that reading. This points toward a balanced contest in which control may shift between the teams rather than one side consistently dictating the match.
The stronger signal concerns the attacking outlook. The game is expected to be high-scoring, and both CF Montreal and Charlotte FC are likely to find the net. That combination suggests an open match with opportunities at both ends, although the evenly matched profile makes the result difficult to separate confidently. A draw is a credible possibility, while a narrow win for either team also fits the overall assessment. The most plausible score patterns remain close rather than one-sided, with the outcome likely decided by small moments in a competitive encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Ashley Westwood suspended
Charlotte FC midfielder Ashley Westwood is suspended for the match against CF Montreal after receiving a second yellow card in their previous match against Houston Dynamo FC.
CF Montreal's recent result
CF Montreal concluded a three-game away stretch with a 2-0 loss against the Philadelphia Union on September 5, 2026.
CF Montreal's home record vs Charlotte FC
CF Montreal holds a 3-1-0 home record all-time against Charlotte FC at Stade Saputo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.