Atlanta United FC — Orlando City SC: Win probabilities, 09.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.4% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.5% / 31.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.0% / 13.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.5% / 32.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.9% / 54.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Inter Miami 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Charlotte 0:2
- 24.08.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 2:1
- 20.08.2026 away Minnesota United 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home New York Red Bulls 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home San Diego FC 1:0
- 30.08.2026 away Minnesota United 3:3
- 23.08.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 20.08.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home FC Cincinnati 1:1
This season: Atlanta United FC at home vs Orlando City SC away
| Metric | Atlanta United FC · at home | Orlando City SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 4–1–6 | 2–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.36 | 1.64 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.64 | 3.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 82% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.05.2026 Orlando City SC 1:1 Atlanta United FC
- 29.05.2025 Atlanta United FC 3:2 Orlando City SC
- 27.04.2025 Orlando City SC 3:0 Atlanta United FC
- 24.11.2024 Orlando City SC 1:0 Atlanta United FC
- 19.10.2024 Orlando City SC 1:2 Atlanta United FC
- 17.03.2024 Atlanta United FC 2:0 Orlando City SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atlanta United FC enter this MLS meeting with a slight edge over Orlando City SC, although the moderate confidence level points to a contest that could remain finely balanced. The home side may benefit from playing on familiar ground, but the available assessment does not suggest a decisive gap between the teams. A draw therefore remains a credible outcome alongside a narrow home victory.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both Atlanta United FC and Orlando City SC likely to find the net. That combination should create an engaging tactical balance: Atlanta United FC will look to use its home advantage to impose pressure, while Orlando City SC should have opportunities to respond in transition or through sustained attacking spells. The most reasonable reading is a competitive game in which the hosts hold a modest advantage, but the visitors remain capable of avoiding defeat.
What matters before kick-off
Atlanta United availability updates
Midfielder Jay Fortune has been cleared to return for Atlanta United. Cooper Sanchez (concussion protocol) and Giuliano Galoppo (visa process) are ruled out, while Steven Alzate is questionable due to illness.
Orlando City SC availability updates
Orlando City SC will be without defender Adrián Marín due to a thigh injury and midfielder Braian Ojeda due to a foot injury for the match in Atlanta.
Recent result for Atlanta United
Atlanta United enters the match following a 2-2 draw against Inter Miami CF, where striker Breel Embolo scored a late penalty to secure a point.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.